Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

[simple]

Are you planning to do several multi week trips a year? The question I ask is at what point is it worth the sweat, time and money to build such a beast to maintain family comfort versus renting a vacation house a few times a year? Vehicle based exploration could be done with far less when operating out of a home base.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Are you planning to do several multi week trips a year?

Yes. This year was our first, and we did a 3-week, 3k mile round trip in a 16' travel trailer. We liked it so much, we plan to more, longer trips in the years ahead.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Vehicle based exploration could be done with far less when operating out of a home base.

Oh, I should also add... we've done that in year's past, but have found that 1-3 days in any particular spot before moving on is our sweet spot. Taking our own rig with us is very much preferred.

 

[Regcabguy]

I'd guess that if you are shopping for new, the manufacturers aren't going to lower their MSRPs. Paying above invoice is hopefully going to end, though.

The used market appears to be poised for a major correction though....probably already is.

I've been watching stuff like this in BAT......using Sprinters as a measuring stick:
2021 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 2500 4×4 Camper for sale on BaT Auctions - ending December 23 (Lot #94,211) | Bring a Trailer
Probably going to end up at $120k....reserve not met; (that is my guess).
This is effectively a brand new Sprinter Camper van that 1-year ago would have fetched $140-180k easily.

Unfortunately, not all owners are ready to except the new market. If you look through the last 6 months at Sprinter based campers at BaT, 4 have not met their reserve...only 2 have sold.
A lot of folks paid $200k for a new build on a Sprinter and are hoping to exit the market without normal depreciation.

EDIT: BAT Auction sold for $128k, reserve was $125k.

With thousand of layoffs and more coming I think qualified buyers will do well in 4-6 months. Massive repos happening right now.

 

[wanderer-rrorc]

With thousand of layoffs and more coming I think qualified buyers will do well in 4-6 months. Massive repos happening right now.

about a year ago I mentioned I was seeing more and more repo trucks during my daily appointments (I’m a plumber and travel all over Columbus Ohio from metro to rural, high end to low end neighborhoods)

And in October of 2020 I started seeing more Moving trucks in the higher end neighborhoods as I was in those neighborhoods pricing out adding basement bathrooms mostly because the owner’s children were moving in with their families..

The repo lots near my office were filling up fast however my friends in the industry said the auctions were still being slow fed because the word on the street was the banks didn’t want to release too many and drive the price down

2020 late until early 21 saw a big influx of new car purchases and the market went up to the point banks were lending 130% of car book value due to market trending and demands…. (At the same time the stimulus checks were being dispersed)

And almost loan for loan there has been a 100% default rate on those loans at that time (per reports I saw and articles people sent me)

My own truck lost 6k in value last month..I’ve been tracking it for 18 months waiting on my bronco to be built.. and interest rates went up so much I passed on the new bronco when it did show up 2 weeks ago..

With the current interest rate my truck I bought Labor Day 2020 would cost me an extra $200 a month vs what I financed in 20..

I’ve been advised not make any big purchases till 2024..

This is going to be worse than 08..glad my house is paid off!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

about a year ago I mentioned I was seeing more and more repo trucks during my daily appointments (I’m a plumber and travel all over Columbus Ohio from metro to rural, high end to low end neighborhoods)

And in October of 2020 I started seeing more Moving trucks in the higher end neighborhoods as I was in those neighborhoods pricing out adding basement bathrooms mostly because the owner’s children were moving in with their families..

The repo lots near my office were filling up fast however my friends in the industry said the auctions were still being slow fed because the word on the street was the banks didn’t want to release too many and drive the price down

2020 late until early 21 saw a big influx of new car purchases and the market went up to the point banks were lending 130% of car book value due to market trending and demands…. (At the same time the stimulus checks were being dispersed)

And almost loan for loan there has been a 100% default rate on those loans at that time (per reports I saw and articles people sent me)

My own truck lost 6k in value last month..I’ve been tracking it for 18 months waiting on my bronco to be built.. and interest rates went up so much I passed on the new bronco when it did show up 2 weeks ago..

With the current interest rate my truck I bought Labor Day 2020 would cost me an extra $200 a month vs what I financed in 20..

I’ve been advised not make any big purchases till 2024..

This is going to be worse than 08..glad my house is paid off!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

thanks for all of the info! Wait until 2024? I could do that. Wish I didn’t have to, but that’s a good stake in the ground.

 

[Ozarker]

I agree, if you are financing, I'd say wait for rates to drop, and they will.

What I just read here is that you took a 16 foot trailer for the family on a trip and had a great time. An F 250 wouldn't have a problem with a 16 to 24 foot travel trailer, so why a 450/550?

I'd also consider a Class C or smaller A and tow other transportation. OK, that's another thread.

 

[billiebob]

are we in for a windfall of affordable rigs and vehicles in the near future?

Maybe, a massive recession would do it but if that hits even a 50% price drop might not be affordable. You say affordable rigs..... they might only be affordable if you have cash.... and you might want to hold onto the cash as basic necessities rise in price.

 

[billiebob]

about a year ago I mentioned I was seeing more and more repo trucks during my daily appointments (I’m a plumber and travel all over Columbus Ohio from metro to rural, high end to low end neighborhoods)

And in October of 2020 I started seeing more Moving trucks in the higher end neighborhoods as I was in those neighborhoods pricing out adding basement bathrooms mostly because the owner’s children were moving in with their families..

The repo lots near my office were filling up fast however my friends in the industry said the auctions were still being slow fed because the word on the street was the banks didn’t want to release too many and drive the price down

2020 late until early 21 saw a big influx of new car purchases and the market went up to the point banks were lending 130% of car book value due to market trending and demands…. (At the same time the stimulus checks were being dispersed)

And almost loan for loan there has been a 100% default rate on those loans at that time (per reports I saw and articles people sent me)

My own truck lost 6k in value last month..I’ve been tracking it for 18 months waiting on my bronco to be built.. and interest rates went up so much I passed on the new bronco when it did show up 2 weeks ago..

With the current interest rate my truck I bought Labor Day 2020 would cost me an extra $200 a month vs what I financed in 20..

I’ve been advised not make any big purchases till 2024..

This is going to be worse than 08..glad my house is paid off!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

This ^^^ says it all. And if we all do this car lots will be full of unsold inventory. The easy money of the past 20 years, sub prime fiasco included is finally catching up. It was unsustainable 14 years ago. The bail outs in 2009, COVID income subsidies and stimulus cheques today have just extended the inevitable.

A reset is long overdue.

On housing a big trend in Canada is laneway homes, carriage houses over garages and the parents who own the property are the residents as their kids families take over the big house and pay off just the carriage house mortgage. Personally as a family I call that a good thing.

Another trend with skyrocketing grocery bills is the family backyard vegetable garden. My wife and I are retired but our garden is bigger than ever. We buy eggs, chickens and beef locally. The market has changed so much we no longer have to buy a side of beef, our local rancher markets the beef in "senior friendly" packages.

 

[Alloy]

Chev 6500 is an option

 

[vintageracer]

Manufacturer's Finance Rates are already WAY DOWN on new trucks, cars and other vehicles. Just watch TV. Dodge 0% +$3500, Ford 0%-3.9% depending upon model and GM going the same way. That's what they have to do to "Move The Iron"! This also greatly effects the value of late model 0-3 year old vehicles driving those prices DOWN! Why buy used when the MONTHLY PAYMENT buying new is less?

To help cover those costs the manufacturer's have ALL raised the MSRP on their vehicles 20%+ in the last 2 years so they can afford the cheap finance rates and rebates needed to "Move The Iron" in 2023 and beyond!

The continuing question is "Can the Public Afford These Great Finance Offers" that have worked so well in the past?

With the rising cost of everything else just needed to live I would say NO!

 

[RAM5500 CAMPERTHING]

Plus, I've priced things out, and the cost difference between building on an F-350 vs. an F-550 is not particularly significant, based on new vehicle MSRP anyways.

My brand new, special ordered, exactly how i wanted it, 5500 was still $15-20k less than a similarly equipped equipped 2500/3500

My TRUCK was $57,450 OUT THE DOOR. Friend got a similarly setup 3500 and was hovering close to $70k

The larger commercial vehicles are quite a bit cheaper brand new..

I also financed it at 1.8% through Chrysler

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

My brand new, special ordered, exactly how i wanted it, 5500 was still $15-20k less than a similarly equipped equipped 2500/3500

My TRUCK was $57,450 OUT THE DOOR. Friend got a similarly setup 3500 and was hovering close to $70k

The larger commercial vehicles are quite a bit cheaper brand new..

I also financed it at 1.8% through Chrysler

This has been my experience, too. New is cheaper than used, and the price of an F-350/3500 was nearly identical to the F-550/5500.

 

[Awkragt]

Personally, I think it is just a simple supply and demand issue and not anything much more complicated.
I'm sure there are some flippers stuck with their investment, but generally I think a lot of the folks who would sell in any normal year are selling like they normally would.

But, there is now a glut of new stock on top of the used market.

To continue to use the Sprinter analog, a search of RVTrader.com shows 1800 Sprinter based RVs for sale currently nationwide.
Sprinter For Sale - RVs Near Me - RV Trader
Harder to get a good price for your used item when the market is saturated with new models.

There are some really bad van builders out there who were doing just fine the last few years that are going to be hurting soon. Small time operations who realized they could cram 5k worth of Ikea cabinetry into a van and flip it for 170k.

I've been through a few van builds lately they are IMO worth less than an empty van. I think this could be cleansing for the van market. Vans used to be cheap and stealth and they are no longer cheap or stealth.

 

[Alloy]

This has been my experience, too. New is cheaper than used, and the price of an F-350/3500 was nearly identical to the F-550/5500.

Dodge "had" (1 1/2 years ago) a better outfitter/builder program than FORD did. I could have saved $12,000CDN if I bought a Dodge cab and chassis through the program. Three of my buddies are FORD techs so it wasn't worth it to me.