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Thanks for the input guys. it certainly won't flex and hit the vehicle, it is pretty damn stiff. The only failure mode I can imagine would be fatigue from bouncing along rough roads as rayra described. I think maybe I'll just put in a safety chain to connect it to the car... that way if it did...

Yea it swings down until the tire hits the ground. I did the welding myself, I should run some numbers to see what the loads on that spot are likely to be but I'm quite sure it isn't a concern. There are two vertical 1/4" plates that are notched out to cover 3 sides of the horizontal square...

I built myself a hitch mount spare tire carrier for my lifted Suzuki SX4. With the bigger tires I couldn't use the stock donut as a spare and I wanted to carry the full size spare outside the vehicle. Photos attached. Let me know what you think! Also I feel like this is something I should have...