If вв путин takes over Ukraine, the effect on the price of gasoline will not be the most important result several years from now.
I'll take devil's advocate on this one, no fan of Putin, and I want Ukraine back to 2014 borders and sovereign, but devil's advocate nonetheless, ok?
Since the dawn of history, Ukraine and Russia have been intertwined. All the way up to the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was really a Russian possession at the very least.
The last 30 years, Russia has been expanding it's natural gas and oil pipelines into Europe, some through the sea, some through Ukraine. Ukraine has the biggest single Nuclear power generator in Europe at Zappazorhia (sp?) And is the largest wheat producer in the region. AND they have the coveted warm water ports that Russia desperately needs...
Bearing in mind, I want Putin out of Ukraine, returned to 2014 borders, or at least 2016 borders, and I wouldn't mind it if Ukraine made it 10 miles into Russia as a DMZ...
Putin didnt squabble much when Latvia, Estonia and other countries went into NATO. Not even Finland, which was so NATO concordant (training, weapons, mindset) that it was practically a given. He didnt flinch much at any of those other nations joining.
Some would argue that after the Budapest Memorandum in '94, we could be seen as the instigators who kept prompting Urkaine to join NATO in the first place, which has always been a known redline for Russia.
But how would it really affect us day to day, if Putin did "take over" Ukraine?