Your obsession with this red herring question of identifying the probability of failure of your HF rig at some arbitrary time is wearing old. The question is not relevant to anyone's consideration of the tradeoffs between relying on an HF radio vs. a PLB for emergency communications..
Actually, the less than 100% reliablility point was your red herring. I'm certain anyone reading my original post would assume that I'd have a serviceable radio. It's a well reasoned assumption. It's interesting that the electronic reliability of either type of unit hadn't been brought up to that point.
What I'd like to do is clear the air for anyone that might read this and now have doubts about the reliability of either type of unit. If you're tiring of, or are incapable of calculating the differences in reliability between the units... let's try this instead.
Here are the three defining questions someone might have after reading these two threads:
Given the same scenario.......
Is there ANY PRACTICAL REASON that I couldn't rely on the electronic workings of my HF radio at a particular time of need?
Is there ANY PRACTICAL REASON that I couldn't rely on the electronic workings my PLB at a particular time of need?
If the answer to each question is no (a reasonable assumption), in a discussion regarding the benefits and shortcomings of each device, is there ANY PRACTICAL REASON to subject the discussion to injections of doubt regarding electronic circuit reliability in one or the other?
It is enough to know that the PLB will exhibit higher reliability due to their lower parts count and lower power dissipation which leads to lower operating temperatures. This will lead directly to the unavoidable conclusion that the PLB has a lower probability of failure at any time in its lifetime compared to an HF rig. This is elementary electronics reliability analysis..
Not true. Here's a very rudimentary example....protection circuits. Protection circuits are just one example where more components lend more reliability. There are many other examples, but this one is easy to understand. They can be comprised from any number and type of components depending on the circuit. I've installed HV glitch resistors on power supplies, placed diodes in meter protection circuits and added gobs of resistors to filter cap bleed banks....all in efforts to ensure reliability. They work, and adding components in many circuits will EXPONENTIALLY increase the overall reliability of these circuits and electronic devices. In many cases, it's the simple circuits that have no protections or redundancies that suffer the most.
No doubt, heat is the enemy in electronics and I've had that discussion with others here in the past. Heat issues can be mitigated in many ways. In fact, more components can even lessen the accumulated heat in a given space/device....and I'm not talking about adding a fan, although it should be mentioned. Component ratings, component spacing (in all directions...stand-offs), chassis design (sinking), and ventilation are just some of the other considerations.
Basically, these units are built to the same standards using the same methods. Usually components are surface and/or through mounted to boards using either wave or reflow soldering methods ..usually the latter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_soldering
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflow_soldering
In all likelihood, it's done with the same brand of machinery.
http://www.ersa.com/reflow-soldering-en.html
And, it's all done to commercial spec with commercial grade components (same as MilSpec since 1994, COTS).
In the world of electronics...all things are melding into one...and this has been happening for at least two decades. The inefficiencies presented by having differing grade components and assembly methods are being done away with. Actually, it's been going on in electronics for even longer. I've got NOS JAN (Joint Army Navy) 6L6WGC tubes mfr'd by Phillips that were used in 50's and early 60's era military cockpits. I use them in the guitar amps I've built. But, these "MilSpec" tubes were no different than the ones my Dad was putting in our TV set back then. I'm sure Phillips billed the Navy at a higher price than what my dad paid.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_off-the-shelf
http://www.militaryaerospace.com/ar.../plastic-ics-get-hot-in-high-temp-market.html
http://www2.l-3com.com/tw/index.htm Search "COTS" or "COTS Initiative" on this site. This is one of the largest military electronics systems contractors.
Whether it's a meaningful difference is an individual decision that should be dependent on a number of considerations. I've never said that HF rigs are so failure prone that nobody should consider them for emergency communications. In general, they are very reliable, but certainly not 100% reliable, which you may recall is the statement you made that lead to the other thread unraveling. We were doing fine for the 6 pages before then.
Yes, I recall and no you weren't doing that well. I can flip to that thread and still read my justification for that statement. My point was that I could reasonably expect my radio to work as well as my PLB in a time of need. I think most who read my post would be assuming the same. Again, I own both, but if my radio is working....I'll say it again...I am 100% assured that I could not only make contact, but could also pass vital information and initiate a rescue mobilization. Until that point, a PLB zealot was having his way with the thread and was wanting to summarily dismiss of any hams by accusing them of having a bias (pot meet kettle).
PLB's are a very worthy addition to the kit, but are more limited in overall utility (to the overlander...er, whatever). They are a last ditch device to be used only in circumstances where there is risk of great physical harm or death and when other communication means have been attempted/exhausted.