Good thread. I also have an '05 LJ Rubicon 6-speed. I bought it used (barely - 7500 miles) and it already had a K&N FIPK in it. I am running Maxxis BHs, 255/85-16. I now have about 75k miles on it. With a dirty filter, and the hardtop on it, I got 17.5 mpg on the last tank. I shift at 2500-2750 most of the time, but get on it when needed. I do not hypermile. My commute is ~40 miles each way, combo of highway and side roads with rolling hills.
BTW - with the 255/85s, my speedo is off about 8%. If your speedo error is the same, your 200 miles on 15 gallons goes from 13.3mpg to 14.4mpg. If your LJ has an auto trans, that would account for another 1-2mpg loss.
I don't know if your area is required to have oxygenated fuels in the winter, but in our area we do. Every year I notice a drop of 1-1.5 mpg when the oxy-fuel switch happens, and an increase by the same amount in springtime when it goes away. This is not just with my LJ, but with every car I have owned and paid attention to since the oxy-fuels were introduced.