I believe fleet applications are the intended market with the family grocery getters coming in a close second as you mentioned. It blows me away that the F150 is the number one selling car in the US followed by the Silverado and Ram. That many people do not need a full size pickup, honestly your average joe would do better with a small SUV and trailer for their yearly mulch run. Regardless I am really excited for the EV market to start including more 4x4 options and honestly car prices have gotten so high that $50-$70K for a full EV truck seems on-par to me.
Since I live in rural SW Washington, but regularly deal with people who live in Portland, I hear that a lot.
The truth is, it depends on where that Average Joe lives. I do see lots of urban/suburban families tooling around in full-size trucks that probably really don't need them.
However, in large parts of the country, there are people who really DO need a full-size truck. Granted, some of them are driving 3/4 tons when they could probably get by with a half-ton, but my left eye starts twitching every time this topic comes up. I mean I COULD drag my recycling bin and two trash cans the 1/4 mile from my house to the road manually, but I'd rather not. Likewise, I could carry a cord of fire wood in about 10 trips in a mid-size crossover, but at some point this gets ridiculous.
And that's before we start talking about the fact that of my 4 wildfire evacuation routes, only one of them is a paved, hard ball road. The alternate route is do-able at slow speed in a CUV. The contingency route will likely damage the CUV, and I have concerns about my F150 making it over the emergency route. So for lots of rural Average Joes, it's not just an affectation.
I think that's the beauty of what Ford is doing. There's an F150 for all comers right now. I think many urban/suburban tradesman and families will jump on the Lightning like a dog on a chicken leg.
Because of my Leftneck leanings, I'd love to have an all-electric truck, but they're just not there yet. When I trade in my 2017 in 7 or 8 years, we'll assess the market, but I'm guessing the right vehicle for me will be the hybrid F150.