Apple Tablet: iPad

[haven]

Here's one way slate computers could be used to consume content: As a magazine reader.

Two examples:

http://www.engadget.com/2009/12/02/time-inc-shows-off-magazine-tablet-demo-plans-future-anger-abo/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLc-8gT2eKg

Maybe that new iTunes store will not focus on movies. Instead Apple will sell licenses to electronic editions of magazines!

 

[Yudda]

Revolutionary? Perhaps I'm missing something. Everyone makes it sound like Tablets haven't been around for the past 9 years, and they have yet to catch on (mostly due to performance). So what exactly makes people think that this is going to be any different (aside from the fact that every Apple fanboy out there will HAVE to have it, and pay a 3x apple premium for design)?

As for killing and replacing the market for dedicated devices, I doubt it. Will most people be willing to replace their cell phone full time with something of this size? Not likely. If you go out for a jog, or to the gym for a workout, are you going to lug this thing around for your music player? Again, doubtful. How about in-car GPS units? There is no doubt a tablet PC will other many features not usually found on most GPS units. But lets face it, GPS units are as successful because they are cheap, small, and people can hook them up and leave them in their car. A tablet doesn't meet any of this criteria. All of this holds true, especially when one considers the likely retail prices these are going to be going for. It wasn't that long ago the AIR came out and was supposed to "revolutionize" the laptop market. Well high price, and limited features dashed that hope rather quickly.

Perhaps it may replace laptops for some folks (after all, thats all this is anyway), but thats about it. It'll be interesting to see too, what kind of enterprise support Apples builds into these units, as that could determine the future of these devices (Perhaps Apple learned this lesson with the iPhones).

IMO, initial short term sales for these might be good (see fanboy above), but long term success will be tough (although it will almost have to be better then AppleTV). I'm guessing they'll be a lot of window shoppers, but not nearly as many buyers.

Hi,

No one is going to replace their phone for a tablet, i dont think anyone thinks that is apples goal.

But you can bet, i will buy a tablet for my truck and EDC uses.

Even if it only has the functions of my iphone, it will take care of 90% of my casual computing needs.

Check out this otterbox tablet from several years back.




a modern Mac version w/ GPS would be perfect for my uses.



rob

 

[Scott Brady]

As for killing and replacing the market for dedicated devices, I doubt it.

Mark my words :sombrero:

Toast. . .

Garmin Handheld GPS: Toast in a few years, with 10% of their sales of a few years ago. Replaced by iPhone and Droid

Kindle and the Barns and Noble thingy (dead before it launched): Replaced by the Apple tablet and iTunes interface. It will also replace the home theater receiver, dvd player, etc. for many users, with greater emphasis placed on the amplifier and speakers. I remember loving my rack of high-end components. Those are all in their sunset.

It is insane to try and produce single purpose devices anymore, except for the most extreme consumer (like aircraft GPS, etc.) Even cool little companies like ScanGauge are toast. I don't even know where my old SandGauge II is anymore, replaced by my iPhone and a wireless ODBII transmitter.

Whoever controls the content will control the hardware now. . . IMHO of course :ylsmoke:

 

[DaveM]

Mark my words :sombrero:

Toast. . .

Garmin Handheld GPS: Toast in a few years, with 10% of their sales of a few years ago. Replaced by iPhone and Droid

Are you including hiking and sports handhelds in that calculation or just the vehicle GPS units? I agree that vehicle based single purpose GPS units time is coming (and I'm a little excited about this, they put me out of business a year ago), but I wonder about the mapping units. I for one don't wan't to go hiking or camping with an iPhone for GPS. Whats the backcountry capability of most of these devices? I know a lot of phones use triangulation not sat signal for co-ordinates, that won't do in the bush.

 

[Scott Brady]

vehicle and handheld are going to be seriously affected. My iPhone 3Gs has built in GPS receiver and a compass. When I ride the KTM, it is all I bring, and have 7.5 minute topo detail from this app and I keep the phone in this case: Otterbox Defender

Not completely waterproof, but bomber.

 

[cnynrat]

Garmin Handheld GPS: Toast in a few years, with 10% of their sales of a few years ago. Replaced by iPhone and Droid

I agree Garmin is facing some challenges in the future. They have some market segments that won't be directly challenged by either emerging tablet devices or smartphones. You won't find pilots navigating with an iPhone for example, and I suspect the unique environmental and form factor requirements will largely protect Garmin's devices for marine and outdoor/hiking applications.

But, over 70% of their business is automotive and mobile, and the new nav apps for smartphones are a direct challenge in that segment. Garmin will need to respond with multi-function devices of their own. They've taken their first shot at that with the nuviphone, and while it hasn't been very successful yet, I'm not sure I would bet against them getting it right eventually. Time will tell.

Strategically, if I was in their shoes I'd be worried about whether erosion of their prime automotive/mobile market segment revenues would affect their ability to continue to invest in new products. I'm sure that's on their radar screen though.

Kindle and the Barns and Noble thingy (dead before it launched): Replaced by the Apple tablet and iTunes interface.

Things like readability and how comfortable it is to sit and hold an ebook reader for any period of time have a huge impact on their success or failure. The reality is that real books provide a great user experience in that respect, and most ebook reader products to date have struggled to match the experience of reading an actual book. Hence the rather lackluster adoption (content availability is also a problem). I think the Kindle is the first device to meet those requirements in a reasonable way. However, while it's designed to be held comfortably for long periods of time, it suffers in terms of "looking cool" as a result (IMHO). Looking at the photoshopped images of the Apple tablet I predict it will fail as an ebook reader if it looks anything like those images. It may be useful for reading short articles, but I don't think I'd sit down and read a book with that device.

It will also replace the home theater receiver, dvd player, etc. for many users, with greater emphasis placed on the amplifier and speakers. I remember loving my rack of high-end components. Those are all in their sunset.

I agree that storage/playback of A/V content is going to be coming off a device that looks a lot more like a computer and a lot less like a DVD player. Not likely I'll ever give up my rack of high-end components, but I will interface a digital server to my sound processor though. I fully realize I'm a dinosaur in this respect.:elkgrin:

 

[preacherman]

While I think an apple product like the tablet PC will be popular it will not "Crush" "stop" or "destroy" the market for other devices. The small GPS units, e-readers, non smart phones etc...will continue to be sold in great numbers for one simple reason....price. Many people will pay $99 for a GPS unit before they will pay $2,500 for a computer that does GPS. It's simple economics. The tablet will change the market for a few who can afford it. The rest of America will only buy the products they can afford. This is why over half of America still does not have a smart phone...money. While an Iphone or Droid can be used for GPS not everyone is going to buy one and use it. Just look at the web sites of the cell phone providers. Much of the product listed is non smart phone, because that's still all many people can buy/ are willing to buy.

It's a cool product and will help a lot of people (who can pay for it) combine several devices but multiple cheap devices will still have a great market because it's what so many people can afford. You could buy a Kindle, a gps, a smart phone, a home PC, and a ipod for less than half of what they will charge for that thing. And that's what many people will do. Multiple devices will continue to be the norm as long as prices for combined devices remain high.

Also another thing about using your phone for a GPS is that when you get a call it interrupts the GPS function. I think Cell phone based GPS are great for small "get directions" type things but many people will have a stand alone unit like a Garmin for the simple fact that it can be used while you talk on the phone.

I like every thing about my iphone but navigating through its features while driving is hard and dangerous. I have a Garmin for the simple reason its easier to use while driving and I can still take calls without interrupting my GPS.

 

[Scott Brady]

....price.

Sure, early adopters will get hosed on the gadget factor, but 12 months later, the next model will be twice as good and half the money. Look at the iPhone 3G, which sells for $99. It was $699 less than two years ago!

There are 17 million active iPhones and they just opened up into Europe and Asia. That will fuel (i.e. pay for) rapid and broad sweeping innovation on that platform and ones similar.

Like you said - economics. . .

 

[winkosmosis]

Are you including hiking and sports handhelds in that calculation or just the vehicle GPS units? I agree that vehicle based single purpose GPS units time is coming (and I'm a little excited about this, they put me out of business a year ago), but I wonder about the mapping units. I for one don't wan't to go hiking or camping with an iPhone for GPS. Whats the backcountry capability of most of these devices? I know a lot of phones use triangulation not sat signal for co-ordinates, that won't do in the bush.

How did they put you out of business?


I went offroading in Sam Houston NF a couple weeks ago and I brought 3 different GPSes because I wanted to log the trip-- iPhone, Magellan car unit, and Garmin iQue (PocketPC).

The iPhone was good for only one thing- the Topo Maps application (at least once it finally got a fix). You can't view topo maps AND create a tracklog, because Apple in their infinite wisdom has decided you only need to run one app at a time.

The Garmin iQue I realized didn't have the ability to create a tracklog. Neither did the Magellan car unit of course.

I was glad my coworker who I brought had a Garmin handheld-- it was the only way to document the trails.

I'm done with car units, PDAs, etc. I'll stick with the iPhone for topos, and a handheld for everything else.

 

[DaveM]

vehicle and handheld are going to be seriously affected. My iPhone 3Gs has built in GPS receiver and a compass. When I ride the KTM, it is all I bring, and have 7.5 minute topo detail from this app and I keep the phone in this case: Otterbox Defender

Not completely waterproof, but bomber.

Very nice case. That's getting pretty close to my ideal "Open Source" GPS device. If only I could get that functionality (large-ish hi-res screen, no keyboard, multiple travel applications, true GPS, ability to use downloaded topo's and charts) in a waterproof body with no need for phone service I'd be all over it. I might be able to get over the phone service thing once my current contract expires (in 2 years). But because I frequently use my GPS in a marine environment, I need it to be water proof (and float!).

I think thats why I'm interested in the iTablet. It has the possibility of all the above functions but could use my dedicated GPS unit for a signal. I don't need the tablet in my boat or when hiking as much so I'd just use the GPS there.

Scott, what do you know about how the iPhone GPS resolution compares to a typical handheld like the Garmin Oregon series units?

 

[winkosmosis]

Very nice case. That's getting pretty close to my ideal "Open Source" GPS device. If only I could get that functionality (large-ish hi-res screen, no keyboard, multiple travel applications, true GPS, ability to use downloaded topo's and charts) in a waterproof body with no need for phone service I'd be all over it. I might be able to get over the phone service thing once my current contract expires (in 2 years). But because I frequently use my GPS in a marine environment, I need it to be water proof (and float!).

I think thats why I'm interested in the iTablet. It has the possibility of all the above functions but could use my dedicated GPS unit for a signal. I don't need the tablet in my boat or when hiking as much so I'd just use the GPS there.

Scott, what do you know about how the iPhone GPS resolution compares to a typical handheld like the Garmin Oregon series units?

Apparently the iPhone doesn't have WAAS http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=542674

 

[DaveM]

How did they put you out of business?

Well, I was being a bit dramatic I worked for CSAA (AAA of N. California) for 10 years as a cartographer. We put out arguably some of the best street level and recreation maps around for our service area*. A few years back we started to see deep declines in map orders from our district offices, due primarily to high use of online routing and GPS devices. Despite the map department being ranked as the second most important member benefit behind emergency road service, AAA closed us last fall. Hard to blame the consumers, I think they just don't realize what they are missing in terms of detail and scope when they give up paper maps.

* note: this applies to CSAA maps only, if your not in N. CA, NV or UT you probably don't have our maps at your AAA office. Most other regional AAA maps are not even close to the level of cartography that came out of CSAA.

 

[Ryanmb21]

Apparently the iPhone doesn't have WAAS http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=542674

that link is to two forum posts from 2008 and they are talking about the iphone 3G not the 3GS. ???

 

[jeffryscott]

Sorry, I may be a fanboy as you say, but I've been using Apple products since 1990 and have never had a virus, never had to replace an OS other than swapping drives or upgrading to a new OS and wanting a clean install. So, I think I have reason to be an Apple fan. Are they 100% perfect? No. Are they damn good? Yes. And aesthetically, which, dare I admit, is important to me, no comparison to the other products I've seen.

As for my statetment that it will be revolutionary, we shall see. I believe it will be, and perhaps you are missing something, hmm, let's see, iPod, iPhone, original iMac. I think all of those could be considered "revolutionary." The have all been gamechangers in the industry. Were they the first, no, but each has influenced nearly everything that has come since in their respective categories.

Be a naysayer, no skin off my back. But I would bet whatever is up with the rumored tablet, it will be a huge seller, not just to "fanboys" and will remain a huge seller, and will be a gamechanger in many current categories.

Revolutionary? Perhaps I'm missing something. Everyone makes it sound like Tablets haven't been around for the past 9 years, and they have yet to catch on (mostly due to performance). So what exactly makes people think that this is going to be any different (aside from the fact that every Apple fanboy out there will HAVE to have it, and pay a 3x apple premium for design)?

As for killing and replacing the market for dedicated devices, I doubt it. Will most people be willing to replace their cell phone full time with something of this size? Not likely. If you go out for a jog, or to the gym for a workout, are you going to lug this thing around for your music player? Again, doubtful. How about in-car GPS units? There is no doubt a tablet PC will other many features not usually found on most GPS units. But lets face it, GPS units are as successful because they are cheap, small, and people can hook them up and leave them in their car. A tablet doesn't meet any of this criteria. All of this holds true, especially when one considers the likely retail prices these are going to be going for. It wasn't that long ago the AIR came out and was supposed to "revolutionize" the laptop market. Well high price, and limited features dashed that hope rather quickly.

Perhaps it may replace laptops for some folks (after all, thats all this is anyway), but thats about it. It'll be interesting to see too, what kind of enterprise support Apples builds into these units, as that could determine the future of these devices (Perhaps Apple learned this lesson with the iPhones).

IMO, initial short term sales for these might be good (see fanboy above), but long term success will be tough (although it will almost have to be better then AppleTV). I'm guessing they'll be a lot of window shoppers, but not nearly as many buyers.

 

[haven]

I agree with Scott that the Kindle, the Nook and other dedicated e-book readers are vulnerable. For better or worse, iTunes has the momentum to become the premier source of digital versions of books, magazines, videos, and movies just like they are today for music. Why own a Kindle when you can have a device that manages presentation of all sorts of media, and serves as a web browser too?

The Kindle 2 with 6 inch diagonal screen costs $260. The Kindle DX, with 9.7 inch screen, costs $480. An Apple "iPad" with 10.1 inch multitouch-enabled color screen might cost $600 at first.

Traditional publishers like Time, Inc, Hearst and Conde Nast are trying to get out in front of the iTunes juggernaut by forming a new company to publish versions of the companies' magazines online. The titles include familiar names like Time, People, Sports Illustrated, The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, and Vogue.

[Edit: Hearst Corp. has just announced an e-reading service called Skiff. Skiff will provide "a comprehensive selection of newspapers, magazines, books and other content from multiple publishers, uniquely optimized for wireless delivery to devices and delivery via the Web."
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20091204005090&newsLang=en ]


In my view, they, like Amazon and Barnes and Noble, will find themselves working with Apple in a year or two.

The reason publishing periodicals online is so attractive is that the print version is prepared using digital tools like Adobe InDesign. It's a simple matter to re-arrange the content for online viewing, rather than printing.
(The design -- the look and feel, if you will -- of the online content is more challenging, of course. But once the design is settled, the production of an online version can be swift.)

Then there's the reduction in cost. Most magazine costs are not in writers, editors and photographers. It's in the printing and mailing of the physical product. Electronic publishing can reduce those costs dramatically.

Chip Haven