Camper Trailer under 8' Height

[eatSleepWoof]

Do you think this will carry over to the off-road craft builders like Xplore who are over pricing thier units?

There will always be a subset of buyers that have a strong demand for a niche product. For example, people who can afford to drop $500k - $1.5M on an EarthRoamer variant today are unlikely to be severely financially limited by any economic turn of events in the near future. Will there be enough similar buyers for all of Xplore's units? Time will tell, but I doubt it.

Xplore's products are not time-tested, don't have a long-standing, luxury-item reputation to fall back on, and outside of a few small, focused communities, are largely unknown to the general public. If everything sh!ts the bed as expected/predicted, people will start selling their non-essential toys at record levels as they try to build up their cash reserves, and buyers will disappear for the same reason. If they mass-produce their trailers, they will likely end up sitting on many of them, and prices will fall. If they make a small number of units they may still be able to sell them at outrageously high prices while spinning their marketing material to show a supposed high-demand, "sold out," long wait-lists, etc.

There are a LOT of outrageously priced trailers these days. Most are grossly over-inflated. Take the Mission Overland Summit models for example: they used to be listed for $34-36k CAD just a few years ago. (Even back then I thought that was about $10k too much for what you got.) Right now they're on dealership floors for $60-65k CAD, and yet, apparently people are still buying them. There are many similar examples across all manufacturers. Has the cost of production doubled in these last few years? No, it hasn't. While overall costs surely increased, at the end of the day you've got the manufacturer and a bunch of middlemen taking advantage of demand to simply gouge their customers. These folks have been gorging themselves on the stupidly high demand and low supply situation of the last few years, but I don't think this will last, and expect dealerships will end up with a LOT of pain in the near future. Time will tell.

 

[Todd780]

Do you think this will carry over to the off-road craft builders like Xplore who are over pricing thier units?

I suppose it's possible. Tough to say cause I think it's a smaller demographic.

 

[calicamper]

I've noticed the same thing with many other higher-end trailers in BC. What used to sell in days now sits for 3 months with no movement... other than a decreasing price. Plenty of sellers still out to lunch, though. Got to laugh at the guys wanting $45k for their 20 year old trailers, while newer, better equipped models from the same manufacturer are not selling at 30k. And I have a feeling in a few months we're going to start seeing a huge influx in inventory, while buyers for anything but essential items will cease to exist altogether.

Fingers crossed for the bankruptcy of every single RV dealer that has been screwing people over since the day it opened its doors for the first time! That is to say, 99% of them.

Its a weird dynamic right now the dealers all are flush with cash after 2 years of $10,000-$15,000 markup profits. They are sitting on inventory trying to wait out the lack of buyers.
However!! Lending companies who finance lot inventory are starting to require deposits on inventory financing due to crashing inventory value vs original financing value.
Another words the true holders of the inventory are getting super concerned that dealers are going to stiff them out of lotsof money!! Some lenders are actually taking stock counts on site and starting to penalize dealers for not selling/ moving inventory.

Lots of 21-22’s sitting on packed RV lots with zero changes in sale pricing etc.

In 4-5 months the $30,000 geo pro listed today will be listed at or below pre pandemic prices of $18,000-$19,000.

The Taxa stuff like the Cricket today $30,000+) that was on lot everywhere and lots of private sale used stuff pre pandemic $19,000-$20,000. The mantis was $30,000-$34,000 pre pandemic today you still see stupid $54,000 dealer adds?‍♂️.

The Opus 15 which was the second generation Black Label rebrand just prior to pandemic was $40,000-$45,000 and not selling.

I predict in 6 month the Opus, MDC, Dweller stuff is in the mid 30’s and barely selling.
The Taxa Mantis will be $30,000 and barely selling. The typical Geo Pro type stuff will be $18,000-$19,000 new and barely selling.

The small shop semi custom guys will either fold up shop with peoples deposits (we’ve seen that many times here) or they will rotate back to building stuff for friends and fun just to retain a name.

Beyond the camper /RV crash many first timers have discovered some negatives. Over crowded ie impossible to book anything for going anywhere out west, no more remote working, no more GOV checks, campers require constant tinkering and storage…

The great off loading of COVID toys has been in effect for a few months but its definitely picking up momentum now.

 

[calicamper]

There will always be a subset of buyers that have a strong demand for a niche product. For example, people who can afford to drop $500k - $1.5M on an EarthRoamer variant today are unlikely to be severely financially limited by any economic turn of events in the near future. Will there be enough similar buyers for all of Xplore's units? Time will tell, but I doubt it.

Xplore's products are not time-tested, don't have a long-standing, luxury-item reputation to fall back on, and outside of a few small, focused communities, are largely unknown to the general public. If everything sh!ts the bed as expected/predicted, people will start selling their non-essential toys at record levels as they try to build up their cash reserves, and buyers will disappear for the same reason. If they mass-produce their trailers, they will likely end up sitting on many of them, and prices will fall. If they make a small number of units they may still be able to sell them at outrageously high prices while spinning their marketing material to show a supposed high-demand, "sold out," long wait-lists, etc.

There are a LOT of outrageously priced trailers these days. Most are grossly over-inflated. Take the Mission Overland Summit models for example: they used to be listed for $34-36k CAD just a few years ago. (Even back then I thought that was about $10k too much for what you got.) Right now they're on dealership floors for $60-65k CAD, and yet, apparently people are still buying them. There are many similar examples across all manufacturers. Has the cost of production doubled in these last few years? No, it hasn't. While overall costs surely increased, at the end of the day you've got the manufacturer and a bunch of middlemen taking advantage of demand to simply gouge their customers. These folks have been gorging themselves on the stupidly high demand and low supply situation of the last few years, but I don't think this will last, and expect dealerships will end up with a LOT of pain in the near future. Time will tell.

I would bet a large number of big ticket toys for the past 4 years were being financed by real estate value increases and stock gains. Here is why. Last 4 years both Real estate and stock market has felt very over heated pushing people to dump money into stuff with little to no return potential given neither real estate or stocks felt like a rewarding investment.

A neighbor has sold big power yachts for 40 years. In 2018 he had more cash buyers than he had ever seen in his life.. It only got more crazy up through 2021. A contractor buddy said the same thing. His bathroom remodels became complete house rebuild jobs $50k to over 1 million $ switch because his customers had money and the market was feeling too over heated.

Today thats not the case.
I have always run the opposite of the spending trend. When its a buyers market for Real estate I buy. When its a buyers market for vehicles I buy. When everyone is dumping stock and thinking stuffing cash under their bed is the thing to do I buy.

The difficulty with that is you need to be patient and know you can’t time the bottom, but you definitely can avoid paying too much at the top.

The I want now syndrome costs you money if your ok with that and can afford it then no big deal. If your financing a depreciating vehicle and suffered “I want now ism” and paid $10,000-$20,000 too much thats going to be between you and your bankruptcy lawyer .

 

[eatSleepWoof]

Spot on all around, @calicamper!

 

[TGK]

Builders like Escape in BC have seen their orders over a year out shrink to 2-3 months in just the last 4 weeks. I would bet the higher priced stuff has seen an even bigger crash in their orders. Course none of them will tell you that. I call BS on your justification. 12months ago yes. Today nope…

I have no doubt you are correct regarding building inventory on RV Dealers lots and softening of pricing in the pre-owned market. However, I was curious about what Escape Trailers in BC is quoting to the public today, so I contacted their sales department via e-mail and got the response showing below. Makes me wonder why they would continue to quote 1 year lead times if they actually aren't close to that. A 1 year lead time is a disincentive to most people and one would think quoting a shorter period would generate more interest. Regarding pricing, it's my understanding that, being direct from the manufacturer sales only, their units have sold at MSRP for years without dickering. So not sure what benefit they'd see. However, there is no doubt that long lead times for new RV's has helped jack up the price of pre-owned RV's, much the same way it has for trucks and vans.

"The earliest completion date for the E17, E19, E21C & E21NE is October 2023 and the 5.0TA is May 2024!"

 

[mep1811]

www.missionoverland.ca

 

[calicamper]

I have no doubt you are correct regarding building inventory on RV Dealers lots and softening of pricing in the pre-owned market. However, I was curious about what Escape Trailers in BC is quoting to the public today, so I contacted their sales department via e-mail and got the response showing below. Makes me wonder why they would continue to quote 1 year lead times if they actually aren't close to that. A 1 year lead time is a disincentive to most people and one would think quoting a shorter period would generate more interest. Regarding pricing, it's my understanding that, being direct from the manufacturer sales only, their units have sold at MSRP for years without dickering. So not sure what benefit they'd see. However, there is no doubt that long lead times for new RV's has helped jack up the price of pre-owned RV's, much the same way it has for trucks and vans.

"The earliest completion date for the E17, E19, E21C & E21NE is October 2023 and the 5.0TA is May 2024!"

Except the escape fb group I’m on people who were 9-11 months out are getting trailers today. They might be telling new buyers a yr to deliver early and help encourage price stability.

 

[TGK]

Except the escape fb group I’m on people who were 9-11 months out are getting trailers today. They might be telling new buyers a yr to deliver early and help encourage price stability.

Good point. I spoke with some neighbors a few blocks away who had one on order from summer 21 and didn't expect it till this past August. They were contacted in March that one was available. However, in their case, I believe the one they took was built for another customer who backed out. Wouldn't be surprised if some of that is also occurring as well. We've considered ordering an Escape but have not put a deposit down. There are things I like about them and things I don't. Always tradeoffs with just about everything.

 

[calicamper]

Good point. I spoke with some neighbors a few blocks away who had one on order from summer 21 and didn't expect it till this past August. They were contacted in March that one was available. However, in their case, I believe the one they took was built for another customer who backed out. Wouldn't be surprised if some of that is also occurring as well. We've considered ordering an Escape but have not put a deposit down. There are things I like about them and things I don't. Always tradeoffs with just about everything.

Lots of people backing out no doubt about that. Many have said plans changed and sadly walking away from their order. IE the financing was dependent on easy loan money. Lots of that for sure has dried up.

Just today I have seen dealers list price at 27-28k on trailers that were $19-$22k pre pandemic. Till today they ranged from 31-38k?.
By February the very same trailer will be 20k ish. I need to get my side yard layout finished so I can jump on the fire sale stuff in a few months.

 

[TGK]

Lots of people backing out no doubt about that. Many have said plans changed and sadly walking away from their order. IE the financing was dependent on easy loan money. Lots of that for sure has dried up.

Just today I have seen dealers list price at 27-28k on trailers that were $19-$22k pre pandemic. Till today they ranged from 31-38k?.
By February the very same trailer will be 20k ish. I need to get my side yard layout finished so I can jump on the fire sale stuff in a few months.

No doubt the "Pandemic Premium" is starting to deflate a bit. I suspect it would drop even faster without the inflationary pressure in today's marketplace.

 

[Obsessed2findARuggedHybid]

Looks like ROA has all of a sudden with no fan fare dropped the price of the Xplore 145 from starting at 125k down to starting at 110k. It does not appear like it is less equipped but they may have done something to the standard options. If they did just drop the price 15k then they either listen to all of us or just realized folks are not buying how they came up with a bonkers price by simply comparing to a 200k Bruder. Still don't think that 145 should be over 100k.

 

[calicamper]

Looks like ROA has all of a sudden with no fan fare dropped the price of the Xplore 145 from starting at 125k down to starting at 110k. It does not appear like it is less equipped but they may have done something to the standard options. If they did just drop the price 15k then they either listen to all of us or just realized folks are not buying how they came up with a bonkers price by simply comparing to a 200k Bruder. Still don't think that 145 should be over 100k.

The imported 100k stuff likely have a factory price of 45k. The imported 45k stuff likely has factory price of 18-20k. Add on $3000 for container shipping and another $2000 in assembly labor bits and bobs cost.

The US assembly labor cost is likely about the same as the Chinese labor build cost. No joke. The markup on the dealer sold stuff is big. $100,000 sell the salesman take home 10k and thats just the loose change the dealer tosses at the sales staff

 

[Obsessed2findARuggedHybid]

The imported 100k stuff likely have a factory price of 45k. The imported 45k stuff likely has factory price of 18-20k. Add on $3000 for container shipping and another $2000 in assembly labor bits and bobs cost.

The US assembly labor cost is likely about the same as the Chinese labor build cost. No joke. The markup on the dealer sold stuff is big. $100,000 sell the salesman take home 10k and thats just the loose change the dealer tosses at the sales staff

Good point. It's hard to compare. With exchange rates a high minimum wage in AU just because its 200k does not mean a xplore 145 should be anywhere near that.

 

[calicamper]

Good point. It's hard to compare. With exchange rates a high minimum wage in AU just because its 200k does not mean a xplore 145 should be anywhere near that.

Point being the prices have lots of room to drop as dealers caught holding stock need to make payments to keep the office lights on.