How Much Longer Until Diesel Is Phased Out?

[I Leak Oil]

There is all sorts of ideas out there regarding biofuels. Like everything else, it also comes with consequences. What happens when that algae finds it's way out of a controlled environment and into the natural ecosystem? Devastation....

20 gallons over the course of a week might be adequate for someone's personal use but it doesn't even show up on the radar as far as being a solution to the use of fossil fuels. That's the issue. The scale at which it would need to be addressed is HUGE. That's also why you're right about the money trail.....

It's all a matter of picking the lesser of the evils.

 

[rayra]

Dude, if I were you, I'd worry more about tin foil being phased out. I'd hate for you to go without your hats.

whatever pollyanna,. I can give you a thousand mainstream media articles detailing the vigorous anti-fossil fuel policies being pursued by eco-groups and much of the Federal government and especially this current administration thru the EPA and it's other regulatory facets. They were announcing their intent to kill the coal industry back in 2007 - ''Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket" * - and have taken several actions attempting to do so. Even after losing in the Supreme Court more than once, they keep coming back with their ruinous regulatory schemes. And as alluded to above by another poster, they're attempting to foist particulate emission regulations that are literally bankrupting smaller trucking firms. Their edicts make it impossible to keep older diesel truck engines on the road and even go so far as to preclude even retrofitting the exhaust sytems of these vehicles to reduce emissions. They flat require purchasing of whole new trucks/designs. A financial impossibility for many small trucking businesses.

The government is deliberately attempting to pick, to force winners and losers when it comes to all forms of energy. and massively against fossil fuels. The evidence is everywhere you care to look. Call it tinfoil if you want. It makes you look like a fool for denying it.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9MkdjlHfWA

 

[rayra]

Being the owner of a late model diesel truck, I should get my diesel fuel for free. I'm driving around an air scrubber. The air being drawn in, is dirtier than what goes out the tail pipe.

EXACTLY so. The EPA just got defeated AGAIN in the Supreme Court for attempting to mandate new 'clean air standards' on the coal-fired power generation industry which had emissions standards set so ridiculously high that the smokestack output was CLEANER than the ambient air around the plant. A practical impossibility, particularly financially.

Just as with their 'Cash for Clunkers' program, this Admnistration's compulsive need for total control and absolutism about fossil fuels is ruinous. They mandated that the trade-ins in 'Cash for Clunkers' - the name itself was a fraud - have a mixture of abrasive grit be poured in their crankcase and the engines ran to destruction, to ensure they couldn't be put back into service OR their parts used to keep like engines in service. And in the meantime, utterly gutted a whole section of the used car market, driving average used car prices in those categories to nearly double. All while encouraging and even mandating increased usage of electric cars - when a vast majority of our power production is coal-based. Even as they try to kill the coal industry. And only allow a handful of nuclear plant retrofits in the last 25yrs. And pour billions of our tax dollars into phony solar production schemes whose companies magically appear, take hundreds of millions in govt handouts and then close their plants before or during their first year of operation.
And the Administration takes credit for increased domestic oil production, even as they act to restrict development on Fed-controlled lands. Fewest permits issued in over two decades. They used the BP spill in the gulf as an excuse to utterly shutter offshore development to the point that most of the companies have towed their development rigs to foreign shores because they aren't allowed to use them here.

 

[rayra]

I agree it seems unlikely governments would completely ban diesel as a fuel, considering that most of the commercial world runs on the stuff. However, it also seems governments might mandate it for commercial use exclusively.

Somebody on ADVrider speculated that even if they didn't outright ban diesel passenger vehicles organizations like the EPA & CARB could raise fuel economy/pollution numbers in such a way to make driving one virtually unaffordable for the average person--a clever way to accomplish an unofficial ban on something. Don't ban the product directly - just ban the parts/supplies the product needs to operate.

This has been the entire thrust these last seven years. The 'Nudge'. They seek to penalize and inflate costs deliberately on activities that are not 'approved'. At its core it is against fossil fuels.
What most of the Millenials don't seem to know or remember is that the EPA et al has been waging war on diesel automobiles for decades. Up until the middle 80s there were many diesel vehicles. Dirty clacking things, And diesel fuel prices were as much as a third cheaper than gasoline. It was part of the attraction of owning a diesel, much lower fuel costs. So the government 'fixed' that and drove up diesel prices and emissions standards, and most of the diesel automobiles vanished. And now #2 diesel costs as much as or even a bit more than gasoline. And for 20yrs there were scarcely any diesel vehicles offered in America. Only recently has that tide turned around. And now we find out it was because the manufacturers were cheating the onerous emissions tests imposed by Western governments.

Diesel vehicles are still in great use in the third world. Toyota still makes their diesel Hilux which many Americans would LOVE to have, but are barred from owning. Diesel is still in heavy use. There are all sorts of economic and mechanical advantages with diesels in those environments and nations. It feeds the very development they need, even has western leftists seek to kill that development here. That's why diesel is under attack, here. It's a direct attack on the 'engine' that drives our economy and civilization. Wrapped up in an 'environment' fig leaf.

 

[Regcabguy]

This has been the entire thrust these last seven years. The 'Nudge'. They seek to penalize and inflate costs deliberately on activities that are not 'approved'. At its core it is against fossil fuels.
What most of the Millenials don't seem to know or remember is that the EPA et al has been waging war on diesel automobiles for decades. Up until the middle 80s there were many diesel vehicles. Dirty clacking things, And diesel fuel prices were as much as a third cheaper than gasoline. It was part of the attraction of owning a diesel, much lower fuel costs. So the government 'fixed' that and drove up diesel prices and emissions standards, and most of the diesel automobiles vanished. And now #2 diesel costs as much as or even a bit more than gasoline. And for 20yrs there were scarcely any diesel vehicles offered in America. Only recently has that tide turned around. And now we find out it was because the manufacturers were cheating the onerous emissions tests imposed by Western governments.

Diesel vehicles are still in great use in the third world. Toyota still makes their diesel Hilux which many Americans would LOVE to have, but are barred from owning. Diesel is still in heavy use. There are all sorts of economic and mechanical advantages with diesels in those environments and nations. It feeds the very development they need, even has western leftists seek to kill that development here. That's why diesel is under attack, here. It's a direct attack on the 'engine' that drives our economy and civilization. Wrapped up in an 'environment' fig leaf.

My hyper-liberal Blame America First friend visited Nicaragua and rented a Toyota Hilux quad cab diesel. He loved them but of course,blamed the auto industry for conveniently excluding them from sale in the US. I defended the industry and pointed him to the real offender,The EPA.

 

[nicholastanguma]

My hyper-liberal Blame America First friend visited Nicaragua and rented a Toyota Hilux quad cab diesel. He loved them but of course,blamed the auto industry for conveniently excluding them from sale in the US. I defended the industry and pointed him to the real offender,The EPA.

And his response was...?

 

[letgonow]

What are you talking about? VW DID cheat. They could not pass the EXISTING, nothing ex post facto about them, emissions standards. Not just in the US BUT ALSO in their European markets. In order to do it, they had to severely limit the power and responsiveness of the powertrain to the point where it would have been completely unattractive to an average buyer. The software was so elaborate as to be able to, through the use of various sensors, know when it was being tested versus when it was being used in regular daily occurrences. Depending upon the sensors, it kicked into a different cycle to lower power and responsiveness allowing it to pass. That is cheating.


As to whether or not it will disappear, I think that it will in light duty use.

I'm afraid you are quite mistaken, perhaps led astray by the associated propagandists in the hysterical press. Perhaps you have not noticed that the charge was not "failed to pass" (which is a specific standard) but a nebulous, UN-provable charge of cheating. This is why the standards have been hastily re-written, to preclude such innovation in the future, and to attempt to hold VW to a standard not previously in existence. Thus, ex post facto application.

VW met the THEN EXISTING emissions standard. That was the legal requirement.

That is what I am referring to.

 

[KE7JFF]

I've met a few engineers at Freightliner here and they told me the EPA diesel standards aren't that bad to deal with on the engineering side of things; while things can appear to be tight with what they specific, they still deliver what the customer wants.

What annoys them was that most brass at manufacturers for years decided that they should just take the engine they sell in the rest of the world and make it EPA complaiant instead of the other way around; but with the EU's Tier 5 coming into play, things are changing.

Interestingly, DEF was a hard decision to make for them as they know customers don't like another fluid to keep refilling on their rigs; they almost went with apparently using a system where instead exhaust is cooled using the engine's own anti-freeze, but it would of required like 20 liters more of antifreeze and piping running thru the truck body, which is another thing that could break and worse. But of course, they came up with BlueTEC which was going to be the NOX reducuer in VW diesels too, but VW changed their mind....

 

[LR Max]

I've met a few engineers at Freightliner here and they told me the EPA diesel standards aren't that bad to deal with on the engineering side of things; while things can appear to be tight with what they specific, they still deliver what the customer wants.

Indeed. The on highway market has been "eased" into the new emission control equipment. They had common rail, etc years ago and are used to plugging in and doing diagnostics. The new engines are far more powerful and fuel efficient compared to their predecessors.

I think diesel will end up as a "heavy duty" fuel only. With the expensive emission control equipment, stop and go traffic kills it (the DPF). With the new diesels, they prefer to run under load and hot. That is when they do their best. Idling and light loads is the worst thing one can do to a new diesel engine. This is an issue since most people get a new 3/4 ton diesel, and just drive it to the grocery store, etc. On the flipside, hooking up your trailer and towing 10k builds engine heat and makes everything work.

The next stage of emissions is coming in Europe. They have the ability to "do whatever they want". Here in the US, we've reached a solid plateau in terms of emissions.

Out in Cali, they are pushing CNG. Also I think UPS went CNG and I see a lot of .gov vehicles running on CNG. Most are light/medium load vehicles which is fine for CNG and considering how cheap natural gas is, why not. Cheaper engines, cheaper fuel, good to go.

As for the "exhaust cooling, that is ecEGR. Externally cooled EGR. That has been around for a long time. It also helps reduce NOx. While not as completely effective as the SCR/DEF system, it significantly reduces NOx and allows for a smaller SCR can and reduced DEF usage.

I think electric vehicles will be viable in 10 years. We will be able to look at an electric vehicle and make a sound economic decision in favor of an electric vehicle. Right now, it is *almost* economically viable. However that doesn't change the fact that the electric batteries are extremely toxic and create a lot of nasty waste. I tell all the hipsters in town that the electric car is the worst thing for the environment. Buy a Suburban, far more environmentally friendly.

 

[drewactual]

I'm one of the lucky with first generation particulate filters- which used injection on the exhaust stroke to push into the filter and ignite at temperature, all in effort to burn soot... which in the words of Pete from "Oh Brother Where Art Thou", "Everett, that don't make no sense"... I'm one of the lucky for one reason: the system was a 'tack on' after the engineering was completed on the engine, which means it can be easily defeated.

Seriously- in the name of environment (which i am all for protecting), let's collect all the soot and then burn it? So- when the engine isn't regenerating, it runs pretty clean... but while it IS regenerating? It dumps what it collected in one fell swoop- microscopic now, but still the same stuff... on top of that and as a result of that, the pressure in the system due to the exhaust fixtures causes a serious impact on economy- like, as much as 4~5MPG impact on an engine with a ceiling of 18ish MPG.. pardon me, but 5mpg is more than 1/3 of 13, which according to redneck arithmetic tells me that 25% reduction in emissions is pushed by cutting in excess of 33% economy...

the technology of diesels is drastically improving with each new job of engine produced. the EPA is HINDERING this development, making manufacturers scramble to assign engineers the task of making current engines meet requirement instead of going from the ground up with an engine with that in mind to begin with. piezioelectric injectors guarding the gate of a silly high pressure common rail, for instance, allows for as many as five distinct injection events per cycle- chasing the piston all the way to the bottom of it's stroke with smaller volumes of fuel as opposed to one or two (including the pilot injection) big volume pushes allows for smoother throttle response and stingy fuel use, and to drivers means 'standing on the skinny is unnecessary' when approaching high load situations on the road. A technology introduced by Ferrari on gassers is finding it's way into medium and heavy duty applications- variable geometry cams... it's brilliant, actually.. the camshaft has a motor attached at the front or rear which slides the cam forward or backward of the block- the camshaft itself has a compound angle ground into each lobe.. this geometry allows not only lift and duration alterations to the valves currently functioning, but also actually actuates valves that were dormant prior- which can lead to actually functional variable cylinders on the engines- truly dormant cylinders that don't compress while dormant and create parasitic power drag... this is coming to diesels sooner than later... imagine driving a compound turbo charged diesel engine @ 200cid, producing 200ponies and 300#tq- then encountering an obstacle and diving into the throttle and initiating the remaining 200cid's of the block- now producing over 500ponies and over 1k#tq- (not expected or accurate figures, just for idea)- and then backing back to four cylinders after the need is eliminated... just like that... no switches to flip, no user input other than driver applying increasing pressure on the go pedal... squirting just enough fuel for the job instead of tossing so much at it that it continues to burn in the exhaust- burning super clean fuel to begin with, and there ya go.

On top of that, using the crower six stroke concept on diesel is another place to watch- further reducing fossil fuel consumption by over a third, while increasing power output... the concept is at least a hundred years old, but with engines now controlled by computers and direct injection real and working, the possibilities just expanded, and diesel platforms are the better of the two major available fuels to use. basically, there are two powerstrokes on a six stroke platform- the power stroke, the exhaust, a squirt of water at the top of the exhaust stroke replacing the expected fuel injection while the cylinder is hottest creates another power stroke, followed by exhaust and then regular injection- it's ridiculous what can be done. there is a crower six stroke engine (gasser) built on a v-twin platform weighing 49lbs that produces right at 400# of torque and over 200 ponies- now that is the exception and not the norm, but the most powerful fire breathing four strokes of similar displacement are lucky to hit 100 hp and matching torque.

but instead of pressing the development of these engines, mandates are passed down which are unrealistic to meet within deadline- making manufacturers focus on them and engine concepts built far prior, instead... go figure... particulate filters and regurgitating exhaust are band aides. but that is where all the focus is... extracting fossil fuels and scrubbing them is the focus, instead of pushing the previously mentioned developers 'pond scum' ideas (which are currently capable of making 20gallons a week, the idea is to greatly expand that technology to producing more quicker, and no- it wouldn't be invasive or dangerous to other bodies of water, as it requires a certain pH and compounds to be present in the water, which aren't totally depleted by the process)...

if anything, in my opinion and if left alone long enough to develop- gasoline will go away before diesel, before diesel is replaced by some sort of light bio oil.

 

[nicholastanguma]

I tell all the hipsters in town that the electric car is the worst thing for the environment. Buy a Suburban, far more environmentally friendly.

And their responses are...?

 

[LR Max]

So the particulate matter from exhaust is a carcinogen. Hence why the decrease in particulate matter.

On paper, the Diesel particulate filter is a great solution. However in practice, it was not so much. With a DPF, you gotta keep heat from the engine up so it constantly regens the DPF. Idle and throttle change is what generates particulate matter. So yeah, sitting there, letting the engine idle forever is about the worst thing for a DPF. Also turning up the fuel and "rolling coal".

Hence why there is a big move away from DPF. The DOC+SCR option is becoming the industry standard since DEF fluid is now widely available.

As for the hipsters, they just give me a blank stare and change the subject.

 

[KE7JFF]

Indeed. The on highway market has been "eased" into the new emission control equipment. They had common rail, etc years ago and are used to plugging in and doing diagnostics. The new engines are far more powerful and fuel efficient compared to their predecessors.

Yup.

I think diesel will end up as a "heavy duty" fuel only. With the expensive emission control equipment, stop and go traffic kills it (the DPF). With the new diesels, they prefer to run under load and hot. That is when they do their best. Idling and light loads is the worst thing one can do to a new diesel engine. This is an issue since most people get a new 3/4 ton diesel, and just drive it to the grocery store, etc. On the flipside, hooking up your trailer and towing 10k builds engine heat and makes everything

I think I read that diesel gets hard to manage below engine sizes of about 2.5 liters due to the small size of everything, which make sense from seeing those tiny 1 cylinder diesel engines

Out in Cali, they are pushing CNG. Also I think UPS went CNG and I see a lot of .gov vehicles running on CNG. Most are light/medium load vehicles which is fine for CNG and considering how cheap natural gas is, why not. Cheaper engines, cheaper fuel, good to go.

CNG is a good option and the retrofitting of existing engines is pretty reasonable too. Propane isn't bad either. And yeah, UPS is testing it out; I think USPS is looking at a retrofit of their giant fleet of Grumman LLVs. However, those types of vehicles are almost like putting a cardboard box on a trike, so you can do almost anything. I remember riding with my aunt who is a New York state employee in a CNG powered Dodge sedan; it ran smooth but however, she told me one of her coworkers had a converted Caprice Classic that apparently would bog down before acceleration then be fine.

I think electric vehicles will be viable in 10 years. We will be able to look at an electric vehicle and make a sound economic decision in favor of an electric vehicle. Right now, it is *almost* economically viable. However that doesn't change the fact that the electric batteries are extremely toxic and create a lot of nasty waste. I tell all the hipsters in town that the electric car is the worst thing for the environment. Buy a Suburban, far more environmentally friendly.

I agree with you, however, I think we at least have figured out how to recycle batteries and sticking with Li-Ion batteries which do have a OK recycling path since not just cars use them. I'm not that harsh on electric cars, I Think what is starting to be true is back in the 70s, the late great American Motors commissioned a market study to see about electric vehicles and who would own them. For the average suburban household, they found that consumers would buy an electric car as the "appliance car", aka the grocery getter, mom-mobile, dad commuter, etc that would just stay in town; the household also said they would own a "fun car" like a Jeep, Truck, Van, or sports car. Electric cars, even if they have a range of 100 miles is fine for communing and just around town stuff where you have lots of stop and go.