Ok dcar. I'm game. Make the argument for D2 v. LR3. My needs are the same above. $15k is still what I'd put in to the whole thing total. Bumpers, RTT, racks etc. included.
That's what I was trying to get at...I honestly love the LR3s and can see myself buying one eventually, but I don't want to beat the snot out of a $15k truck in the woods.
I don't know that I can say much bad about the LR3 beyond the added (initial) expense and the fact that it's substantially longer (~10 inches?) than a D2. If that length isn't a problem for you off-road, then IMO they are really impressive as long as the driver has some idea what they're doing. If he doesn't, I've seen guys in the LR3s take lots of damage...but this is really true in any truck off-road (the LR3 is just nicer and more expensive, so it hurts a little more to see one get banged up).
You will have to decide for yourself how much you'd take it off-road and weigh the extra space and horse power versus the potential to drag the rear end and challenges in tight quarters. For $15k you can get a LR3 and maybe put some MT tires on it. Then if you get some Johnson rods, you can use the existing suspension to lift it whenever you need the extra ground clearance, then drop it back to normal ride height for every day use. If you can find one with the 'heavy duty' package (locking rear diff) that's in nice shape, then it would almost certainly be better than any D2 that hasn't had lockers installed. That said, given the budget of $15k you'll have to live with the stock bumpers, no sliders, and probably no winch.
On the other hand, if you're going someplace genuinely rough, with a $15k budget I'd find a nice $3-7k D2
(On a side note, don't get too stuck on the idea of the '03/'04 model years, they aren't that much nicer, certainly not for the price difference...the '99-'01s were also extremely good and it's easy to add the locking transfer case shifter from a D1.). Then I'd bring it up-to-date on maintenance, add some MT's, lift it, and armor it up (with f/r diff guards, sliders, steel bumpers), and finally a winch...
If you aren't going places where you'll need that stuff, or you aren't worried about damage, then get the LR3. It's just as capable, and much nicer than the D2s. A word of caution though...I bought my D2 and said "I'm just going to do a little light off-roading, nothing too rough." The next thing I know it's 2 years later and I'm doing a run up a stream bed full of boulders. Personally my biggest reason for not getting a LR3 yet is because I would just feel bad about destroying it...D2s are like a commodity. Build one up, drive it until it dies, buy another and swap the off-road bits over to it, then sell the 1st one for parts...
(<-- thanks to rijosho for documenting me banging my D2 up LOL)
...Buy the LR3 if you are going to use it daily and take it off road often.
I figured Spike would post up about his P38 experiences! LOL...
Spike was definitely one of the guys I was thinking of when I said there have been some people who've had great experiences with P38s. I've seen a lot more that haven't though...