The problem is that no really really knows. It’s a combo of every rig is different and the use cases are different (eg, top heavy?, towing?, FS roads or the Rubicon?, what mods?) and the fact that the GVWR numbers are a combination of OEM lawyers, marketers, state limits for personal vs commercial vehicle weights, and design engineers calculations of safety margins, crap tires designed to get best mpg but not carry weight, plus maybe other stuff we don’t know (steel quality? other mechanicals redesign that hasn’t been disclosed, etc).
I have no idea, but I really doubt that the OEMs actually test things to failure, do they? If so, Toyota would have the Truck of the year with the new Tundras instead of a dumpster fire of engine failures. That’s where the experience of others helps a little bit.
I think you just have to understand the structure of your vehicle, the effect of intended mods and how it will all work together with the weight you’ll run in different circumstances. It all ends up to be a big ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ . . .
Personally, I’d add a subset to your Don’t Exceed Design Specs/Stay under GVWR and make that Don’t Exceed Your Combined and Individual Axle WR (but know if your vehicle has a particular weakness). IF there’s any kind of consensus at all on this from the hundreds (maybe thousands?) of posts on payload, it might be that. If that’s what works for heavy commercial hauling, it may be the least squishy metric to be a hard stop threshold, but then again . . .YMMV!