Good luck LtFuzz getting down to 1 vehicle; very hard for some of us to downsize let alone to "one" vehicle including myself.
The LR3 has never really spoken to me but for some reason the LR4 does -- it's slimmer, more graceful looking IMO.
Do you think the 2010s will drop another $10k in the next 2-4 years?
How much do you think a 2013 LR4 with 50k-60k miles will command in 2017-2019?
If you can swing the numbers, go for the LR4; sweet engine, slimmer front end look and you seem to like it better; but get a used one to avoid the steep depreciation out of the showroom.
Problems I heard so far from a fellow LR club member 2010 LR4 owner were: replaced coil pack on Cyl. 4 (11k miles), fuel injector cleaned (11k miles), navigation screen blacked out and battery drained overnight = radio software update (12k miles), Fuel gauge stopped working = replace complete sending unit in fuel tank (17k miles), and vibration from front end = replaced tie-rod ends (22k miles). All under warranty.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, brand new LR4s back in 2010 was going for $60k w/options e.g. upgraded audio, and now in 2012, I see a few used 2010 for about $40k. So that's a $20k drop; plenty of good mods and spare change left from a $20k budget.
By estimation, I think a used 2010 will be around $35k in 2013, $30k in 2014 and about $19k in 2016. Also my guess in 2016, a newer variation of LR4 or newer model (?LR5) will be introduced, and by 2017, LR4 will follow the faith of the 2006 LR3 today in the sub $15k.
Curious if a diesel option will be introduced for 2016 models since the expected CAFE 2016 requirements will be atleast 34.7 mpg for Land Rover. I can't see how the current V8 gas engine on the LR4 can attain that mpg.
Est 7226 LR4s were sold in the US in 2010. Hoping the 99% of 7226 moms/dads who bought LR4s to haul kids/mall crawling will be trading up and selling them to the 1% (who will use them for what they are intended off-road) at a good price.
And I'd wait till winter is over and into 2013 to buy one. Seems w/winter and snow sports in the mtns, atleast in the SF Bay Area , SUVs sales have a prem asking price and lower used inventory.
My bro-in-law is in the new car sales business (European vehicles); he reminds me from time to time plenty of used LR3 or rare occassion LR4 trade-ins that come-in the dealership, but I keep telling him the need to downsize first before I can even think of buying.
Good luck finding the "one" vehicle!