Appears the auto industry, because of regulation, is moving in the direction of very complex powertrains. If we do get a diesel it may be the MHEV diesel which is much less interesting.
The European Auto Industry Is Racing To Ditch Diesel
An article in the Financial Times explains the impact of the new legislation on Europe’s automakers, an industry that supports some 14 million workers across the continent.....
....Quoting Max Warburton, an auto analyst at Bernstein, the article says each carmaker faces its own CO2 target based on the weight of its vehicles. A business selling smaller cars, such as
PSA, therefore has a lower CO2 target than a company with a heavier average vehicle, such as
Mercedes-Benz owner
Daimler.
The targets for each company vary from around 91 g/km to just over 100 g/km. Some carmakers, like PSA, have already made good progress, switching less fuel-efficient, four-cylinder GM engines in their new Astra range to new three-cylinder PSA engines has improved efficiency by some 21 percent.
However, carmakers like PSA do not have a lot of luxury saloons and SUVs in their lineup. Daimler, BMW and JLR do, and the situation is made worse by a rise in sales of such vehicles in recent years.
Europe — once the home of the small, fuel-efficient compact — has fallen in love with the SUV. Some 40 percent of cars sold in the E.U. are now SUVs and automotive carbon emissions have, as a result, risen for the first time in a decade.
Potential fines for missing these new fleet emission limits are punishing, the FT states.......
.....From 2020 onwards, however, the situation is set to deteriorate as overall profitability suffers. “No one will survive in the form they exist today,” Ralf Kalmbach of consultancy Bain & Co, who has spent 32 years advising German carmakers, is quoted as predicting.
The E.U. is making some concessions to limit the damage. Carmakers will be measured on only 95 percent of their fleet in 2020, giving them a little breathing space to continue selling their most-polluting — and often most-profitable — vehicles longer.
But unlike the U.S., European firms cannot buy and sell credits, they can only pool overall fleet results with competitors........."