Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

[AbleGuy]

Any predictions on when the truck market will start to come back down to more reasonable levels?
At any rate, are we in for a windfall of affordable rigs and vehicles in the near future?

Maybe we will for camp trailers, vans and RV’s. Just read this today:

“In November, RV shipments from manufacturers to dealers tumbled 50.4% from the same period a year earlier to 24,445, according to the RV Industry Association (RVIA).”

And…
“November was the second-weakest of any month since 2016.”

This demand slide…”can be traced to …the Fed’s key rate rising by more than 4 percentage points this year. That has sharply increased borrowing costs for RV buyers… Interest rates to finance the purchases now average 4.89% to 11.89%...”

So, with financing rates increased and fears of a recession growing, it’s being predicted by RVIA industry spokespersons that most folks are going to be more careful about going further into debt for things like buying new campers, etc.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Dodge "had" (1 1/2 years ago) a better outfitter/builder program than FORD did. I could have saved $12,000CDN if I bought a Dodge cab and chassis through the program. Three of my buddies are FORD techs so it wasn't worth it to me.

I'd happily buy from any of the big vendors (Dodge, Ford, Chevy, GM). The Ram 5500 has some really nice features you can buy at build that are super appealing (notably a digital rearview mirror and full-sized lowering rear window to support a truck camper passthrough).

I haven't driven any of them, though, and assume a test drive would be an important step in this process.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Maybe we will for camp trailers, vans and RV’s. Just read this today:

“In November, RV shipments from manufacturers to dealers tumbled 50.4% from the same period a year earlier to 24,445, according to the RV Industry Association (RVIA).”

And…
“November was the second-weakest of any month since 2016.”

This demand slide…”can be traced to …the Fed’s key rate rising by more than 4 percentage points this year. That has sharply increased borrowing costs for RV buyers… Interest rates to finance the purchases now average 4.89% to 11.89%...”

So, with financing rates increased and fears of a recession growing, it’s being predicted by RVIA industry spokespersons that most folks are going to be more careful about going further into debt for things like buying new campers, etc.

Interesting! I watch "Josh the RV Nerd"'s insider reports and he noted that even with sharply declining sales, 2022 was still the 3rd biggest sales year on record for the industry.

It'll be interesting as hell (for good and bad) to see what a declining economy does to the industry.

 

[Wallygator]

Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

i’ll be curious to see if the barrage of over market price trucks listed here actually sell for asking price

 

[Wallygator]

i’ll be curious to see if the barrage of over market price trucks listed here actually sell for asking price

Right? The prices for "overland" vehicles are insane. Also there are 100's of brand new trucks sitting in parking lots waiting for chips? Prices keep going up. An will keep going up due to the strange need to print money like it's going out of style.

 

[RAM5500 CAMPERTHING]

i’ll be curious to see if the barrage of over market price trucks listed here actually sell for asking price

Nope. That window has closed, and folks being slapped with a hard dose of reality now.

Check out how many **PRICE DROP** posts all those ads have right now!

 

[Mickey Bitsko]

I've been reading many articles and looked at computer models and graphs,
Pretty much all are not sure or undecided, however vehicle manufacturers
Are cautiously optimistic..

 

[AbleGuy]

Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

I see your Jordan, and raise you a Pat!

 

[calicamper]

My brothers bankruptcy and debt recovery stuff at his law firm is ramping up still. It’s taking a long time for people to burn through their GOV handouts and reverse mortgage/ credit line loans. But those are drying up and that side of the business is seeing a month by month increase. He’s watching the layoffs by companies that typically aren’t known for laying people off. Example Sales Force isn’t known for doing layoffs and they have been shedding sizable numbers of people. Typically tech has been first to tighten budgets given they see revenues dry up fast and investors expect quick company actions to be in lock step with market direction.

Whats interesting is seeing people still ordering big ticket items like Airstream trailers as if we were still in September 2020, while dealers are hiding inventory in back warehouses to keep the 2020 shortage perception going.

What will push the change is when short term financing companies start refusing to finance dealer stock thats over 1.5 yrs old. The crap will hit the fan and dealers will start shedding old inventory with big price corrections (not calling it price reduction given manipulation of perceived availability isnt true market pricing?)

 

[calicamper]

Interesting! I watch "Josh the RV Nerd"'s insider reports and he noted that even with sharply declining sales, 2022 was still the 3rd biggest sales year on record for the industry.

It'll be interesting as hell (for good and bad) to see what a declining economy does to the industry.

I have watched him also. He’s definitely a sales guy and a bit full of crap about 1/2 the time.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

I have watched him also. He’s definitely a sales guy and a bit full of crap about 1/2 the time.

I don’t know that I describe it as full of crap, so much as speaking to a very different buyer than the types of folks, you’ll find on this forum.

 

[Ozarker]

My brothers bankruptcy and debt recovery stuff at his law firm is ramping up still. It’s taking a long time for people to burn through their GOV handouts and reverse mortgage/ credit line loans. But those are drying up and that side of the business is seeing a month by month increase. He’s watching the layoffs by companies that typically aren’t known for laying people off. Example Sales Force isn’t known for doing layoffs and they have been shedding sizable numbers of people. Typically tech has been first to tighten budgets given they see revenues dry up fast and investors expect quick company actions to be in lock step with market direction.

Whats interesting is seeing people still ordering big ticket items like Airstream trailers as if we were still in September 2020, while dealers are hiding inventory in back warehouses to keep the 2020 shortage perception going.

What will push the change is when short term financing companies start refusing to finance dealer stock thats over 1.5 yrs old. The crap will hit the fan and dealers will start shedding old inventory with big price corrections (not calling it price reduction given manipulation of perceived availability isnt true market pricing?)

Love it man, but need to give you a bit of an economic education. The first to lay off workers are always fast food workers and car wash employees. That's because these a discretionary expenditures.

Next are retail workers, like WalMart and Cosco, SAM's, why? Because they are simple laborer workers, non skilled, usually highly in debt to their employers employee purchase programs, most of which allow your brother-in-law to have beer and BBQ's.

Generally, local drug dealers pick up this employment slack by getting new street reps out on the corner.

And, none of these are serious buyers of new inventories.

When you see Harry Lonearranger cutting back on financing for these under paid servants, that's when credit tightens.

Car dealers manipulating prices in any local market will then begin to lower prices for these undesirable clients but they compensate by raising interest rates on the buy now, pay later plans.

Just say'n, it's not always what you think it is, there is much more to it than simple market influences of the "common consumer".

 

[calicamper]

Love it man, but need to give you a bit of an economic education. The first to lay off workers are always fast food workers and car wash employees. That's because these a discretionary expenditures.

Next are retail workers, like WalMart and Cosco, SAM's, why? Because they are simple laborer workers, non skilled, usually highly in debt to their employers employee purchase programs, most of which allow your brother-in-law to have beer and BBQ's.

Generally, local drug dealers pick up this employment slack by getting new street reps out on the corner.

And, none of these are serious buyers of new inventories.

When you see Harry Lonearranger cutting back on financing for these under paid servants, that's when credit tightens.

Car dealers manipulating prices in any local market will then begin to lower prices for these undesirable clients but they compensate by raising interest rates on the buy now, pay later plans.

Just say'n, it's not always what you think it is, there is much more to it than simple market influences of the "common consumer".

Who do think pays car wash attendants? Its the Tesla techie ?‍♂️

 

[RAM5500 CAMPERTHING]

For Whatever Liberal Media Is Still Worth Nowadays:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/business/used-car-prices/index.html