Will we be seeing truck prices come down in the near future?

[ReluctantTraveler]

As many of you have noticed, the classified section of this forum has been flooded with overland vehicle listings lately. Last week, I saw a few threads on Twitter about a looming vehicle repo crisis because so many people bought vehicles are inflated prices and are now underwater on their loans.

Any predictions on when the truck market will start to come back down to more reasonable levels?

I'm curious for completely selfish reasons. I have a DIY expedition truck planned, but finding a reasonably priced F-550/5500 has been impossible. I recently pivoted to just modifying our entry-level travel trailer, and... WOW, those things are not meant to be worked on. So many great "when you build your own rig DO NOT DO THIS" kind of learning moments.

At any rate, are we in for a windfall of affordable rigs and vehicles in the near future?

 

[carleton]

I'd guess that if you are shopping for new, the manufacturers aren't going to lower their MSRPs. Paying above invoice is hopefully going to end, though.

The used market appears to be poised for a major correction though....probably already is.

I've been watching stuff like this in BAT......using Sprinters as a measuring stick:
2021 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter 2500 4×4 Camper for sale on BaT Auctions - ending December 23 (Lot #94,211) | Bring a Trailer
Probably going to end up at $120k....reserve not met; (that is my guess).
This is effectively a brand new Sprinter Camper van that 1-year ago would have fetched $140-180k easily.

Unfortunately, not all owners are ready to except the new market. If you look through the last 6 months at Sprinter based campers at BaT, 4 have not met their reserve...only 2 have sold.
A lot of folks paid $200k for a new build on a Sprinter and are hoping to exit the market without normal depreciation.

EDIT: BAT Auction sold for $128k, reserve was $125k.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

I'd guess that if you are shopping for new, the manufacturers aren't going to lower their MSRPs. Paying above invoice is hopefully going to end, though.

The used market appears to be poised for a major correction though....probably already is.

That's what I'm hoping for! A used commercial grade truck has a LOT of life left in it. No sense paying for that first few years of depreciation when someone else can.

I got my daily driver (a barely used BMW 3-series) for 30% less than it would have cost if I'd bought it new the year before.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Unfortunately, not all owners are ready to except the new market. If you look through the last 6 months at Sprinter based campers at BaT, 4 have not met their reserve...only 2 have sold.

A lot of folks paid $200k for a new build on a Sprinter and are hoping to exit the market without normal depreciation.

Do you think these are folks who got into it, decided they didn't like it, and are trying to make an exit or... flippers looking for a quick cash grab?

 

[simple]

The used vehicle market was up 30-40% at on point due to demand. No new cars and trucks available. It's hard to say what will happen with the used truck market moving forward when more new vehicles become available. There will still be a hole in the supply from a couple / few years where new trucks were not available to become used trucks. There is a still a hole from 08-10 when manufacturers scaled back production and financing was difficult.

We also saw a huge run on the pickup truck market when people started using them to express their political identity. Truck tribalism. This also coincided with covid and the rush to get outside in trailers and campers. The sticker on new trucks has gone up and probably won't come down. It doesn't seem like the average consumer can afford them and will continue to keep the pressure up on the used market. Cars on the other hand will probably come down significantly.

I wonder what's going to happen in the future with the economics of driving clunkers now that cars with CAN bus systems are reaching back 10 years or more. It was easier to repair or limp along in an older car than it will be moving forward. Techs certified to diagnose computerized systems are expensive. Shop rates in my area are $120-130 and hour. A tricky diagnosis can add up $$$. Will people be able afford to keep older vehicles on the road?

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

The used vehicle market was up 30-40% at on point due to demand. No new cars and trucks available. It's hard to say what will happen with the used truck market moving forward when more new vehicles become available. There will still be a hole in the supply from a couple / few years where new trucks were not available to become used trucks. There is a still a hole from 08-10 when manufacturers scaled back production and financing was difficult.

We also saw a huge run on the pickup truck market when people started using them to express their political identity. Truck tribalism. This also coincided with covid and the rush to get outside in trailers and campers. The sticker on new trucks has gone up and probably won't come down. It doesn't seem like the average consumer can afford them and will continue to keep the pressure up on the used market. Cars on the other hand will probably come down significantly.

I wonder what's going to happen in the future with the economics of driving clunkers now that cars with CAN bus systems are reaching back 10 years or more. It was easier to repair or limp along in an older car than it will be moving forward. Techs certified to diagnose computerized systems are expensive. Shop rates in my area are $120-130 and hour. A tricky diagnosis can add up $$$. Will people be able afford to keep older vehicles on the road?

A really thoughtful analysis. Thanks!

 

[RDinNHand AZ]

I’m in the market for a mid-sized extra cab pickup as an everyday driver and a desert traveler when I want. 4X4 automatic 6cyl of the 2005-2015 vintage and ~100K miles. Recently here in AZ they have been asking mid to high $20K’s and a new Tacoma access cab SR with 6’ bed and trailer package msrp is only about $5k more! I would never give more than $12K for such a truck that is 13-15 years old and 100K miles no mater how nice. I have time on my side as my 2002 4Runner desert vehicle is going strong with 240K on it. This has to change or I’m going to see 300K on the ‘Runner.

 

[carleton]

Do you think these are folks who got into it, decided they didn't like it, and are trying to make an exit or... flippers looking for a quick cash grab?

Personally, I think it is just a simple supply and demand issue and not anything much more complicated.
I'm sure there are some flippers stuck with their investment, but generally I think a lot of the folks who would sell in any normal year are selling like they normally would.

But, there is now a glut of new stock on top of the used market.

To continue to use the Sprinter analog, a search of RVTrader.com shows 1800 Sprinter based RVs for sale currently nationwide.
Sprinter For Sale - RVs Near Me - RV Trader
Harder to get a good price for your used item when the market is saturated with new models.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Personally, I think it is just a simple supply and demand issue and not anything much more complicated.
I'm sure there are some flippers stuck with their investment, but generally I think a lot of the folks who would sell in any normal year are selling like they normally would.

But, there is now a glut of new stock on top of the used market.

To continue to use the Sprinter analog, a search of RVTrader.com shows 1800 Sprinter based RVs for sale currently nationwide.
Sprinter For Sale - RVs Near Me - RV Trader
Harder to get a good price for your used item when the market is saturated with new models.

Hashtag vanlife and all that!

 

[RDinNHand AZ]

I wonder what's going to happen in the future with the economics of driving clunkers now that cars with CAN bus systems are reaching back 10 years or more. It was easier to repair or limp along in an older car than it will be moving forward. Techs certified to diagnose computerized systems are expensive. Shop rates in my area are $120-130 and hour. A tricky diagnosis can add up $$$. Will people be able afford to keep older vehicles on the road?

I am hoping the diagnosing software becomes ubiquitous like the ODB2 adoption in the early ’90’s. That really made diagnosing easier then back when we had non-computerized vehicles. My now sold 2015 Ram van was easy.
Of course the ODB2 was a requirement due to the propriety software proceeding it being unavailable to end users..

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

I’m in the market for a mid-sized extra cab pickup as an everyday driver and a desert traveler when I want. 4X4 automatic 6cyl of the 2005-2015 vintage and ~100K miles. Recently here in AZ they have been asking mid to high $20K’s and a new Tacoma access cab SR with 6’ bed and trailer package msrp is only about $5k more! I would never give more than $12K for such a truck that is 13-15 years old and 100K miles no mater how nice. I have time on my side as my 2002 4Runner desert vehicle is going strong with 240K on it. This has to change or I’m going to see 300K on the ‘Runner.

Gotta love a Toyota, right? Those things just keep on going!

 

[AbleGuy]

Hang in there y’all.

Yesterday in the national economic news (sorry, didn’t save the article) it was forecasted that in about the next 6 months, used vehicle prices on the average should see declines of @20%, with new vehicle prices dropping @ 5%, FWTH.

The strangled economy and high interest rates were listed as contributing factors, again FWIW. ??

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

Hang in there y’all.

Yesterday in the national economic news (sorry, didn’t save the article) it was forecasted that in about the next 6 months, used vehicle prices on the average should see declines of @20%, with new vehicle prices dropping @ 5%, FWTH.

The strangled economy and high interest rates were listed as contributing factors, again FWIW. ??

I wonder if that will be just the car market, or if we'll see trucks follow a similar trend. Thanks for sharing another data point, though!

 

[simple]

The 550/5500 market is less likely to have slightly used vehicles available. They don't sell many of these and most are purchased by construction companies and utility companies. They don't tend to get coughed up until they are 10 years old so. I personally would stay away from builds on these platforms. Run of the mill mechanics and shops don't have the space or equipment to work on them. Tires usually have to be done at a commercial vehicle shop. The builds are much more expensive. They look cool but it is a small number of folks doing them and it is another level of mechanic nerdiness to make it happen. My opinion is that the best bang for the buck is a 3500 with an 8' bed and a 10' box. Build it light and very basic. Think more like a hard side box / tent that you can camp out of rather than a lumbering fully loaded RV. It's a philosophical thing though and most people doing custom habitat builds on 5500's are aiming toward an earthroamer type machine.

 

[ReluctantTraveler]

I personally would stay away from builds on these platforms. Run of the mill mechanics and shops don't have the space or equipment to work on them. Tires usually have to be done at a commercial vehicle shop. The builds are much more expensive. They look cool but it is a small number of folks doing them and it is another level of mechanic nerdiness to make it happen. My opinion is that the best bang for the buck is a 3500 with an 8' bed and a 10' box.

I hear you, but... I've explored various options in the 350/3500 to 550/5500 range, and based on my needs, it unfortunately has to be the bigger truck platform.

We're a family of 4 plus pets. A smaller bed and box is great for a couple. But 4 people, a dog or two, clothes for everyone, bikes, enough water for that many folks, etc... you hit weight and size constraints a lot faster on the smaller platform trucks.

Plus, I've priced things out, and the cost difference between building on an F-350 vs. an F-550 is not particularly significant, based on new vehicle MSRP anyways. Used market + maintenance may be another story, of course, but unless we want to downgrade to a seriously minimal experience, we just can't make it work.

Trust me, it'd open up a LOT more options if I could pull it off!