good theory as to how it missed the mark.

zimm

Expedition Leader
Guys, do you know what Lindy Effect is?
If X survives Y years, it can, statistically, survive twice as many later.

If the IG survives 5 years it will survive 5 more years. And then maybe even 20 years and later 40 years...
Longer it stays longer it will remain.

In 5 years the Ineos will have huge data collected. if they make correct adjustment and decisions and will listen to customers (to a degree) they will have a success.
I know a guy who has one and he loves it. It's his hunting rig. He says it's not the most comfortable SUV he ever had but it the best built one.
The lindy effect is about resistance to change. Now, think about that while considering the juxtaposition of something like, the statistical failure rate for corporations at 250 years is 100%, and you may think, hmmmmm your interpretation of the theory is misconstrued.

It's like when people interpret Murphy's law in the "woe is me" fashion that "what can go wrong, will go wrong". That's not what it states. All it means is, something only fails while being used and that is when it's most catastrophic. I.E. it is more likely for a Jet engine to fail under stress in flight than while taxing on the runway, and that is unfortunate as the result is much worse.
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
I’m not trying to debate much further, but if you care to look at the Grenadier forum everything you mention has already been discussed ad nauseam. We all fortunate enough to be able to buy what we want and what suits our lifestyle. I see more Jeeps/Broncos that are lifted with big tires and all the stuff that looks cool that will never go off the pavement. Which is perfectly fine. One could make the same argument about sports cars that are tricked out that will never see the track.

For what it’s worth I actually like the new Lexus and Land Cruiser. I’d need the Lexus for its towing capacity over the LC. I’m also still excited about my silly Belstaff jacket.
There's no chance I'd wear that.

Looking like David Niven, went out with.... David Niven.
 

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nickw

Adventurer
For everyone that I offended, I apologize. I snapped and should have found a more productive way to express my frustration with the response that the Grenadier and its engineering partners are receiving and the lack of respect I perceive is being levied to the incredible effort from engineers and financial backers to give this community a brand new, body on frame, hypoid axle, heavy duty wagon available in the North American market despite the unbelievable regulatory hurdles posed in 2024. The fact that it happened is nothing short of a miracle, and I am frustrated that this community, of all communities, does not adequately appreciate the effort that went into making this happen and selecting truly robust parts and partners in my opinion. I do not own a Grenadier or stock in Ineos, but I have brought new products to market and I think this effort is largely under appreciated by a substantial margin.

For me, I don't see how the G wagon, engineered, designed, and constructed by Magna Steyr can be one of the gold standards in overlanding, and at the same time, the Ineos Grenadier, also designed and engineered by Magna Steyr and weighing 500 lbs more than either a G wagon or 76 series Land Cruiser is guilty until proven innocent. To me, both things cannot simultaneously be true. Since the G wagon is clearly proven, particularly the G461 series, the Grenadier being even HEAVIER, is clearly not a light duty toy by any standard of deductive logic.

The new vehicles will prove their worth or fail, though mechanical failure seems to be a very low probabilistic outcome based on the engineering team that brought the vehicle to fruition. If it turns out to be a total dud with wheels falling off, wiring catching fire, thrown con rods through blocks, and snapped frames, then bring me a crow and with enough Sriracha, I'll eat it. But, I'm confident it won't be necessary.

Also, due to improvements in metallurgy, manufacturing, and materials science, the metrics that may have previously been indicative of strength do not linearly translate to today. Everything is far more complicated from heat treating, alloys, machining, materials science, forming, etc. than in days of yore, and I don't think this complexity gets the appreciation it deserves.

There are real issues with the Grenadier such as how exactly service and warranty will work, the cost of a low production 6,000 lb vehicle will inherently be high if for no other reason than the $/lb basis of materials and meeting 2024 regulations, the lack of range for my personal application, etc. However, since there are not millions in use having logged millions of miles, there is no data on the long term dependability so we can only look at probability forecasting. With Magna in the lead supported by Carraro, ZF, etc. the most probabilistic outcome is that the thing is a brick lavatory with a motor that has higher than average maintenance costs, but will not suffer from rotating assembly failures. If that's not good enough, then just wait and see.

In the meantime, I'm off to Mexico to not worry about engineering. Hopefully by the time I get back someone will be offering a fuel tank large enough for a comfortable 450 mile range. Or perhaps I should hope they don't. It would certainly be easier on my cheque book if this thing doesn't meet my range requirements. And, again, I'm not interested in bolting rotopax to every surface to get that range.
I don't think it's going to go down in flames but what I (personally) take umbrage with is people saying it's the next coming of G/LC. Why should it get a pass when it was not designed completely in house (using outsourced parts), they don't have a track record, the design intent is not military or commercial based (outside of marketing). I think it is very reasonable to be apprehensive and non-emotional, it looks like the part but we simply don't know any specs.

Build quality, durability, reliability, repairability, cost, parts availability...all those things need to balance out IMO, we don't have much information on any of it, at least I don't enough to make an educated decision.

Using a LC as an example - they use engines, trans and axles across a very small subsect of rigs, all "HD", there is not cross compatibility with sports cars or lightweight SUVs like the Gren is doing, I think they are breaking new ground there as far as I know.

The disappointing thing is I look like the jerk asking the questions - I asked in Scotts "Ask us anything" thread, got nothing. I've asked around here, nobody knows anything. Searched on the Gren forum - nobody knows anything. How will parts ordering / service work - get nothing.

I was a potential buyer of this but without info the LX600 was on the deck but decided on a GX550 Overtrail....not even on market yet and we know all the running gear specs which aligns with the HD platforms Toyota uses overseas/domestically (Tundra).
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
I don't think it's going to go down in flames but what I (personally) take umbrage with is people saying it's the next coming of G/LC. Why should it get a pass when it was not designed completely in house (using outsourced parts), they don't have a track record, the design intent is not military or commercial based (outside of marketing). I think it is very reasonable to be apprehensive and non-emotional, it looks like the part but we simply don't know any specs.

Build quality, durability, reliability, repairability, cost, parts availability...all those things need to balance out IMO, we don't have much information on any of it, at least I don't enough to make an educated decision.

Using a LC as an example - they use engines, trans and axles across a very small subsect of rigs, all "HD", there is not cross compatibility with sports cars or lightweight SUVs like the Gren is doing, I think they are breaking new ground there as far as I know.

The disappointing thing is I look like the jerk asking the questions - I asked in Scotts "Ask us anything" thread, got nothing. I've asked around here, nobody knows anything. Searched on the Gren forum - nobody knows anything. How will parts ordering / service work - get nothing.

I was a potential buyer of this but without info the LX600 was on the deck but decided on a GX550 Overtrail....not even on market yet and we know all the running gear specs which aligns with the HD platforms Toyota uses overseas/domestically (Tundra).
I doubt durability is an issue. I think where there have been issues, is when utilizing off the shelf parts from various manufacturers, they still need to integrated to function smoothly. If time isnt taken or the budget isnt there, you get foot humps higher than the pedal height to accommodate a cat that interferes with the floor pan, or winches that can only hold 30ft of usable line.... oops.
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
I don't think it's going to go down in flames but what I (personally) take umbrage with is people saying it's the next coming of G/LC. .



Using a LC as an example - they use engines, trans and axles across a very small subsect of rigs, all "HD", there is not cross compatibility with sports cars or lightweight SUVs like the Gren is doing, I think they are breaking new ground there as far as I know.
Why would you take it personally and be annoyed? Calm down Francis. It's just a car.

Land Rover used a Buick sourced V8 for 40 years, and the drivetrains in 463 G wagons have a divorced t-case, so they were lifted complete from sedans no alteration to the transmission housing. I would have prefered a 6 bolt main 4.8 ls, to ditch the turbo, package better, and mate to a higher tq tranny, and considering the ************ MPG I'm all but certain its a better truck engine, but it is what it is. An over strength design doesn't directly equate to reliability.
 

85_Ranger4x4

Well-known member
The Buick/rover v8 is kinda different. They were popular for swaps and modifying in the uk because of their small size and light weight before rover acquired the design... much like the ls in the us and for that matter the sbc that proceeded it.

And they used the design for 40 years but Rover updated and enlarged it as needed, it wasn't the same Buick car engine all along.

Nothing really wrong with a car based engine on the premise, all of the engines in my 4x4's were in cars too.
 

nickw

Adventurer
Why would you take it personally and be annoyed? Calm down Francis. It's just a car.

Land Rover used a Buick sourced V8 for 40 years, and the drivetrains in 463 G wagons have a divorced t-case, so they were lifted complete from sedans no alteration to the transmission housing. I would have prefered a 6 bolt main 4.8 ls, to ditch the turbo, package better, and mate to a higher tq tranny, and considering the ************ MPG I'm all but certain its a better truck engine, but it is what it is. An over strength design doesn't directly equate to reliability.
I don't take it 'personally', this isn't a right vs wrong necessarily, I just think it's strange that people give it a pass without knowing specs, we need to get to a quantitative discussion.

And they put SBC's in 3/4T pickups too along with the 292 straight 6 in sedans....in cross over applications it can make sense, especially if the company designing, engineering and building the engine, knowing it's design limitations, are using it. Same thing with the G, Merc has all the inside info, but the engines they've historically used in the G were very well made and part of the reason why they sedans were so reliable/durable relative to their peers and small changes in transmissions can make all the difference.

You are right, over strength does NOT = reliability, we can look at any a Honda Civic to prove that point. What it DOES point to, if you believe they engineered it properly, is durability. The use of HD axles point to design intent, if you assume they designed it right. On the contrary we see what 'appears' to be under strength part not suited to design intent like the engine/trans from a Supra/X1, so it goes both ways amigo.

I'd have MUCH less hesitation if IG came to the table with axle specs and some design specs for engine/trans; design life, weight capacities, changes made.
 

nickw

Adventurer
Yup. Throwing 60s under a TJ doesn't make it anymore reliable for "overland travel" than one with the factory axles.

Mr. Myagi said.. "must have balance"
I've said that for years - you have downstream effects and now your 'fuse' is your Tcase or Trans, not good. But like I said above, if you believe they designed this properly, axle specs are an EXCELLENT data driven, quantitative thing that we have a lot of data to compare with that point to design intent.

Based on the weight and how it's been 'marketed' I'd expect HD axles bigger than the stuff found on a Jeep.
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
The Buick/rover v8 is kinda different. They were popular for swaps and modifying in the uk because of their small size and light weight before rover acquired the design... much like the ls in the us and for that matter the sbc that proceeded it.

And they used the design for 40 years but Rover updated and enlarged it as needed, it wasn't the same Buick car engine all along.
I'm not sure how its different. Buick is a car company and designed a massively oversquare engine to favor rpm over low end tq. awesome for a light car in the 60's, but not ideal for a truck. and landrover put it in a truck. it wasnt until the 4.6 that they actually lengthened the stroke. Apparently the manifold fits all them, and I don't know if they skirted the block. My guess is they did something since the 60's.
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
I've said that for years - you have downstream effects and now your 'fuse' is your Tcase or Trans, not good. But like I said above, if you believe they designed this properly, axle specs are an EXCELLENT data driven, quantitative thing that we have a lot of data to compare with that point to design intent.

Based on the weight and how it's been 'marketed' I'd expect HD axles bigger than the stuff found on a Jeep.
you take a 3500lb 180hp jeep and put an axle thats designed to last 100000 miles under 7000lb 400hp truck and is 100% stronger than needed to reach fail. Is it more reliable for that 100000 miles?

No really. it's still the same amount of rotations under loads that never cause any appreciable wear. You may save on brakes.

Add bigger tires with more kinetic energy? now you've got a reason to enlarge. and that's durability. not reliability.
 

85_Ranger4x4

Well-known member
I'm not sure how its different. Buick is a car company and designed a massively oversquare engine to favor rpm over low end tq. awesome for a light car in the 60's, but not ideal for a truck. and landrover put it in a truck. it wasnt until the 4.6 that they actually lengthened the stroke. Apparently the manifold fits all them, and I don't know if they skirted the block. My guess is they did something since the 60's.

Rover bought the engine, if something needed changed like exhaust routing they just yell down the hall and engineering redesigns the exhaust.

Higher rpm isn't bad if the engine is built for it. Compact V8's of the day were not really torque monsters qnd most were heavier anyway.

The engine in every 4wd in my fleet started out in a car, I have no car related issues with them. But... they were not just plucked off a pallet and dropped in a 4wd.
 

zimm

Expedition Leader
Rover bought the engine, if something needed changed like exhaust routing they just yell down the hall and engineering redesigns the exhaust.

Higher rpm isn't bad if the engine is built for it. Compact V8's of the day were not really torque monsters qnd most were heavier anyway.

The engine in every 4wd in my fleet started out in a car, I have no car related issues with them. But... they were not just plucked off a pallet and dropped in a 4wd.
I still don't comprehend as to how the engine Buick designed for a car going into a series/defender in my example was any different than the merc bits used in a car going into a gwagon. I'm missing your initial point.
 

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