TerraLiner:12 m Globally Mobile Beach House/Class-A Crossover w 6x6 Hybrid Drivetrain

safas

Observer
I have spotted one big error that you do in average power calculations, but forgotten to write. Newell et al. need to size their generators for peak load. When there's AC, stove and vacuum cleaner running, the boiler decided to to turn on there should still be plenty of juice for the owner's high-end PC in the outlet or else the owner will be dissatisfied. Average power use will be much lower.

Also, some calculations. A 300 L tank of diesel with the most efficient engine found so far (BMW N47 130 kW), 99% electric generator efficiency and 80% battery efficiency gives 3400 kWh total or 4.7 kW average over 30 days.
 

safas

Observer
Updated the spreadsheet:
https://copy.com/gH7w8NAiUL9nDRUu
I changed parameters to better align with your requirements:
* upped fuel amount from 200 to 250l
* made engine redundancy a requirement
* upped required power from 300 HP to 270 kW (362 HP)

I also added a number of engines.
Specific notes:
* Rotapower that now tops the list is a multifuel engine that can spark-ignite diesel. It's a vaporware, but still...
* I added VW 2.0 TDI as it's the most efficent engine that's reasonably small that I found. I failed to find its weight though....
* I found another source for Delatahawk sfc. It looks more reasonable.

I should note that parameter tuning has huge effect on ranking. I've seen an engine going from position 3 to 255 by a minor change in power requirements (that required adding another engine). So be careful about that.
 
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biotect

Designer
Updated the spreadsheet:
https://copy.com/gH7w8NAiUL9nDRUu
I changed parameters to better align with your requirements:
* upped fuel amount from 200 to 250l
* made engine redundancy a requirement
* upped required power from 300 HP to 270 kW (362 HP)

I also added a number of engines.
Specific notes:
* Rotapower that now tops the list is a multifuel engine that can spark-ignite diesel. It's a vaporware, but still...
* I added VW 2.0 TDI as it's the most efficent engine that's reasonably small that I found. I failed to find its weight though....
* I found another source for Delatahawk sfc. It looks more reasonable.

I should note that parameter tuning has huge effect on ranking. I've seen an engine going from position 3 to 255 by a minor change in power requirements (that required adding another engine). So be careful about that.


Hi safas,

Gosh, once again, wow...:bowdown:

It's going to take me a while to digest this information; give me about a week to respond, OK? Right now I have a bit too much else on my plate.

But so many interesting leads in this revised version of your spreadsheet, especially the possibility of a rotary engine – see http://www.rotapower.eu/assets/pdfs/Background on the Rotapower engine - (2009).pdf .

Simply discovering that Wrightspeed has stuck to its guns, and has now perfected a purpose-built microturbine generator for transportation applications…… Simply fantastic. I no longer feel that all the work I put into researching and posting about microturbines a year ago was wasted effort; see page 50 and following, beginning at http://www.expeditionportal.com/for...pedition-RV-w-Rigid-Torsion-Free-Frame/page50 . That research has now paid off handsomely, because I can fully appreciate the depth of Wrightspeed's drivertrain solution.

As well as some additional possibilities.


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1. Two Generators of Different Sizes?


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For instance, Wrightspeed does not seem committed to just one specific generator. Sure, Wrightspeed has developed its own 80KW Fulcrum microturbine, but as Wrightspeed clearly states on its website, it sees itself primarily as a hybrid-electric drivetrain company, and is committed to an “Open Generator Architecture”:



COndor1.jpg Untitled-1.jpg



Which means that the TerraLiner can and should be deliberately designed so that generators can be easily swapped. Notice in the first image how Wrightspeed locates its "Fulcrum" microturbine generator high up behind the cab!! You got to love it: total freedom of engine + generator placement.

Indeed, since the first TerraLiner will be a prototype, the intelligent thing to do would be to line up 5 or 6 different generator possibilities, and design the generator compartments slung down low on the sides -- and all relevant wiring -- such that all generator possibilities could be tested: everything from a pair of more traditional Jenoptiks at one end, to a turbine-powered jet-aircraft APU at the other, and gensets based on rotary engines in between. That way in the first few years the TerraLiner prototype could experiment with different generator types, different power outputs, and different battery configurations.

Put is this way: now that I realize that the TerraLiner will probably need to have six 250 HP electric hub motors -- big electric motors that can function simultaneously as very robust electromagnetic-induction retarders when braking, providing tons of non-friction stopping power -- it has occurred to me: why not experiment to see what might happen if one were to fit the TerraLiner with at least one helicopter-turbine-powered APU, an APU that could pump out the 1120 Watts of electricity necessary to drive six electric motors whose peak power is rated the same?

And another question just occurred to me: why should the TerraLiner's two generators (two for fail-safe redundancy) be exactly the same?

One generator could be a super-potent helicopter-turbine-powered APU, an APU that would kick in precisely when the TerraLiner needs to climb a long steep incline. With six hub motors packing 1500 HP and instant torque, the TerraLiner would climb mountain passes at jaw-dropping speeds. Yes, this high-powered APU would consume fuel at a ferocious pace when so doing. But the payoff would be a super-fast big truck unlike any other on the planet.

However the other generator could be completely different, with a much more modest output, somewhere in the range of 200 to 400 HP, or 150 to 225 KW, and would be much more fuel-economical. 95 % of the time it would be this more modest generator that keeps the battery bank topped up, and the six 250 HP electric motors running. Even though the electric hub motors will be rated at 250 HP peak power each, in the course of normal driving they would not consume anything like that amount of power. So a second, very different generator that only produces 150 – 225 KW should suffice.



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2. Both of your spreadsheets are very useful


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safas, sorry to pull the rug out from under you with yet one more revision. But for better or worse the idea just occurred to me about an hour ago, as I was pondering the reality of those enormous 250 HP hub motors that Wrightspeed uses...:ylsmoke:

Again, it seems to me that Wrightspeed uses those big electric hub motors primarily to function as retarders for braking. I could be wrong about this, but that does seem to be what's going on. So it occurred to me, “Hey, if the TerraLine will need to mount six 250 HP hub motors in any case, and if this means it has potentially 1500 HP on tap in the power-train, why not throw in a helicopter-turbine-powered APU after all? A 1500 HP helicopter turbine is super-small and super-light, and the only potentially heavy part would be the generator attached, a generator robust enough that could translate all that power into electricity.” The fantastic acceleration of the TerraLiner with six such motors running at peak power would certainly be breathtaking.

In short, safas, turns out that both of your spreadsheets will prove useful!! Indeed, that super-advanced LHTEC T801 turboshaft made by Rolls-Royce/Honeywell, that weighs just 143 kg, and yet produces 1563 HP….. well, suddenly it becomes very interesting……:sombrero: ....See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LHTEC_T800 , http://www.deagel.com/Helicopter-Turboshaft-Engines/T800-LHT-801_a001705002.aspx , http://www.rolls-royce.com/customers/defence-aerospace/products/uav/cts800.aspx#cts800-overview , http://www.rolls-royce.com/customers/civil-aerospace/products/helicopter-engines/cts800.aspx , https://aerospace.honeywell.com/products/engines/cts800 , http://helihub.com/tag/lhtec/ , and http://www.deagel.com/Helicopter-Turboshaft-Engines/CTS800_a001705003.aspx .

Quite honestly, when you first suggested incorporating a helicopter turbine, I thought the idea was nuts, primarily because of fuel consumption. But turns out that maybe it was not such a nutty idea after all, at least with respect to the TerraLiner prototype, where the agenda will be precisely experimenting a bit with slightly nutty ideas…..:)

Many, many thanks.

All best wishes,



Biotect
 
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biotect

Designer
Hi Iain,

I don't know if you've been following the recent exchange with safas, and the thoughts about the humungous electric hub motors that Wrightspeed uses….. It does seem that they're so big because they also function as the regenerative and retarding brakes.

So I was just wondering: if you have the time, would you be willing to do a quick power calculation for the TerraLiner + trailer (30 – 32 tons combined) descending an incline of 0.5 % (0.005), for 870 km? The TerraLiner would start at 4,700 m, and would end up at 500 m above sea level, for a total drop of 4200 m. This is more or less what happens on the Karakoram highway as it descends from the border with China down to Islamabad -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karakoram_Highway , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khunjerab_Pass , and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad .

I am not certain how to use the formulas to do the calculation of the energy generated by such a continuous descent, and how much energy the TerraLiner's braking systems would have to absorb. The assumption here would be that the hub motors will function as both regenerative brakes and retarders, and together the six motors could absorb 1500 HP or 1120 KW of continuous power. Whether the battery pack could in turn absorb that energy, that's another question!

Or let me put the question this way: how could one introduce "inefficiency" into the system, such that 1500 HP of potential braking energy in the electric hub motors might get absorbed and dissipated?

No doubt my question here is badly formed, so if you want to reform the question, spin it around, explain hidden or mistaken assumptions, etc., please let fly. So too, if you want to imagine much tougher situations, e.g. a 3 % incline across 100 km, from 3000 m down to sea-level, or a 5 % drop across 100 km, from 5,000 m to sea-level, please do!!

Even though a 5000 m drop along a highway in just 100 km probably does not occur anywhere on planet earth, it might still be interesting to do the calculation......:sombrero:

All best wishes,


Biotect
 
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safas

Observer
Hi safas,

Gosh, once again, wow...:bowdown:

It’s going to take me a while to digest this information; give me about a week to respond, OK? Right now I have a bit too much else on my plate.

But so many interesting leads in this revised version of your spreadsheet, especially the possibility of a rotary engine – see http://www.rotapower.eu/assets/pdfs/Background on the Rotapower engine - (2009).pdf .

Simply discovering that Wrightspeed has stuck to its guns, and has now perfected a purpose-built microturbine generator for transportation applications…… Simply fantastic. I no longer feel that all the work I put into researching and posting about microturbines a year ago was wasted effort; see page 50 and following, beginning at http://www.expeditionportal.com/for...pedition-RV-w-Rigid-Torsion-Free-Frame/page50 . That research has now paid off handsomely, because I can fully appreciate the depth of Wrightspeed’s drivertrain solution.

As well as some additional possibilities.


********************************************


1. Two Generators of Different Sizes


********************************************



For instance, Wrightspeed does not seem committed to just one specific generator. Sure, Wrightspeed has developed its own 80KW Fulcrum microturbine, but as Wrightspeed clearly states on its website, it sees itself primarily as a hybrid-electric drivetrain company, and is committed to an “Open Generator Architecture”:



View attachment 316902 View attachment 316901



Which means that the TerraLiner can and should be deliberately designed so that generators can be easily swapped. Notice in the first image how Wrightspeed locates its "Fulcrum" microturbine generator high up behind the cab!! You got to love it: total freedom of engine + generator placement.

Indeed, since the first TerraLiner will be a prototype, the intelligent thing to do would be to line up 5 or 6 different generator possibilities, and design the generator compartments slung down low on the sides -- and all relevant wiring -- such that all generator possibilities could be tested: everything from a pair of more traditional Jenoptiks at one end, to a turbine-powered jet-aircraft APU at the other, and gensets based on rotary engines in between. That way in the first few years the TerraLiner prototype could experiment with different generator types, different power outputs, and different battery configurations.

Put is this way: now that I realize that the TerraLiner will probably need to have six 250 HP electric hub motors -- big electric motors that can function simultaneously as very robust electromagnetic-induction retarders when braking, providing tons of non-friction stopping power -- it has occurred to me: why not experiment to see what might happen if one were to fit the TerraLiner with at least one helicopter-turbine-powered APU, an APU that could pump out the 1120 Watts of electricity necessary to drive six electric motors whose peak power is rated the same?

And another question just occurred to me: why should the TerraLiner’s two generators (two for fail-safe redundancy) be exactly the same?

One generator could be a super-potent helicopter-turbine-powered APU, an APU that would kick in precisely when the TerraLiner needs to climb a long steep incline. With six hub motors packing 1500 HP and instant torque, the TerraLiner would climb mountain passes at jaw-dropping speeds. Yes, this high-powered APU would consume fuel at a ferocious pace when so doing. But the payoff would be a super-fast big truck unlike any other on the planet.

However the other generator could be completely different, with a much more modest output, somewhere in the range of 200 to 400 HP, or 150 to 225 KW, and would be much more fuel-economical. 95 % of the time it would be this more modest generator that keeps the battery bank topped up, and the six 250 HP electric motors running. Even though the electric hub motors will be rated at 250 HP peak power each, in the course of normal driving they would not consume anything like that amount of power. So a second, very different generator that only produces 150 – 225 KW should suffice.



********************************************


2. Both of your spreadsheets are very useful


********************************************



safas, sorry to pull the rug out from under you with yet one more revision. But for better or worse the idea just occurred to me about an hour ago, as I was pondering the reality of those enormous 250 HP hub motors that Wrightspeed uses...:ylsmoke:

Again, it seems to me that Wrightspeed uses those big electric hub motors primarily to function as retarders for braking. I could be wrong about this, but that does seems to be what’s going on. So it occurred to me, “Hey, if the TerraLine will need to mount six 250 HP hub motors in any case, and if this means it has potentially 1500 HP on tap in the power-train, why not throw in a helicopter-turbine-powered APU after all? A 1500 HP helicopter turbine is super-small and super-light, and the only potentially heavy part would be the generator attached, a generator robust enough that could translate all that power into electricity. The fantastic acceleration of the TerraLiner with six such motors running at peak power would certainly be breathtaking.

In short, safas, turns out that both of your spreadsheets will prove useful!! Indeed, that super-advanced LHTEC T801 turboshaft made by Rolls-Royce/Honeywell, that weighs just 143 kg, and yet produces 1563 HP….. well, suddenly it becomes very interesting……:sombrero: ....See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LHTEC_T800 , http://www.deagel.com/Helicopter-Turboshaft-Engines/T800-LHT-801_a001705002.aspx , http://www.rolls-royce.com/customers/defence-aerospace/products/uav/cts800.aspx#cts800-overview , http://www.rolls-royce.com/customers/civil-aerospace/products/helicopter-engines/cts800.aspx , https://aerospace.honeywell.com/products/engines/cts800 , http://helihub.com/tag/lhtec/ , and http://www.deagel.com/Helicopter-Turboshaft-Engines/CTS800_a001705003.aspx .

Quite honestly, when you first suggested incorporating a helicopter turbine, I thought the idea was nuts, primarily because of the fuel consumption. But turns out that maybe it was not such a nutty idea after all, at least with respect to the TerraLiner prototype, where the agenda will be precisely experimenting a bit with slightly nutty ideas…..:)

Many, many thanks.

All best wishes,



Biotect

Please note that I have not removed anything from the spreadsheet. It's just that parameter changes pushed turbines to lower places. The second really supersedes the first.
 

biotect

Designer
Hi Iain,

Thought I should post the following video, about the 2014 "Foretravel" 45-foot luxury coach, in answer to your question about interior "specifications":



[video=youtube;McN1HmYUGlI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McN1HmYUGlI [/video]



I've posted this video not because I think Foretravel is competition for Newell. It's not. For instance, there's a huge difference in design competence, and the Foretravel interior and exterior can't hold a candle to a Newell. For a fairly complete analysis of Newell from a design point of view, see posts #1948 to #1963, which occupy part of page 195, all of page 196, and part of page 197, from http://www.expeditionportal.com/for...igid-Torsion-Free-Frame?p=1962631#post1962631 to http://www.expeditionportal.com/for...igid-Torsion-Free-Frame?p=1962835#post1962835 . Newells aren't aesthetically perfect, but they are decidedly two or three notches above this Foretravel coach. This Foretravel coach also probably doest not have Newell's ZF tag-axle steering.

Why then did I post this Foretravel video? Because it does an unusually good job summarizing all the features typical of a high-end, 45 foot "premium" or "luxury" Class-A American motorhome. I've never come across videos about Newell or the various Prevost-chassis-based coaches built by Millennium, Marathon, Featherlite, and Liberty, that provide the same sort of compressed, point-by-point run-through of features -- see http://www.cbsnews.com/media/7-incredible-multimillion-dollar-motorhomes/ , https://www.prevostcar.com/content/motorhome-very-special-experience , http://motorhome.prevostcar.com , and http://motorhome.prevostcar.com/where-buy .

There is something wonderfully "literal", direct, and down to earth about this Foretravel video, and it does a good job illustrating and/or describing:


(1) Flat-floor slide-outs, with pneumatic seals
(2) Active air-ride suspension to compensate for cornering and side-winds
(3) A steel "base" chassis and cockpit enclosure combined with aluminum framing and a fiberglass exterior
(4) 600 HP Cummins engine
(5) An Allison 6-stage transmission retarder, instead of a 2-stage engine brake
(6) A humungous double-door refrigerator that looks like it's at least 48 inches wide
(7) Four 15,000 BTU rooftop A/C units with heat pumps
(8) The standard 20 KW generator that all such motorhomes include
(9) Pneumatic pocket doors
(10) A stacked washer & dryer combination
etc. etc.


It should be emphasized that in the world of semi-custom "premium" motorhomes, all of this stuff is standard. Foretravel probably itemizes in detail to reassure customers that their motorhome will include all these features, despite its comparatively low purchase price. Whereas in the world of true "premium" motorhomes that cost 1.7 million USD instead of 1.3 million USD, the features described in the Foretravel video are simply assumed as a given.


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1. Not Just Newell, but also Millennium, Marathon, Featherlite, Liberty, and.....


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The following videos by the well-known suppliers at the top-end of the market are all very interesting, and they are packed with details and narrative. But they do not provide terse, item-by-item voiceover descriptions, as per the Foretravel video. So it's probably best to watch the Foretravel video first, to get a sense of the basic format and features that are now standard in of the American "premium" Class-A market. Then watch the videos below, to see what kinds of gee-whiz variations on the same basic format might prove possible:



Millenium





Marathon





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biotect

Designer
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Featherlite





Liberty





The Prevost Bush Shell Used by these Fabricators





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biotect

Designer
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[video=youtube;HtiUjOv-H-4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtiUjOv-H-4 [/video]



Also see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ewft-4Do_4 , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K11Oy6QOfo8 , and Prevost's YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjoyNSkQwfA6IQIAHH9Yj_g . For the YouTube channels of Millennium, Marathon, Featherlite, and Liberty, see https://www.youtube.com/user/MillenniumLuxury , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAbBkySKyww , https://www.youtube.com/user/libertymotorcoach , https://www.youtube.com/user/FeatherliteCoaches , and https://www.youtube.com/user/MarathonCoach1.

I also posted these videos to underscore a fundamental point. The multimillion-dollar USD end of the American Class-A market is not confined to Newell. Newell might be understood as the "super-premium" coach in this class, but there are at least four other manufacturers, and all of them regularly build motorhomes that run between 1 - 2 million USD. As the videos above make clear, some coaches made by these manufacturers even cost more than 2 million USD.



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2. Market conditions in Australia are not a reliable economic analog for anywhere else


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Iain, hope you won't be too offended if I then say that the Australian motorhome market is simply not a very good guide to what the American market is like. In other words, even if there is not a very big market in Australia for motorhomes that cost more than 1 million USD, this means nothing, because Australia is a small country with a comparatively tiny economy. Market conditions in Australia are not a very reliable analog for anywhere else on planet earth, including other First-World economies that may seem superficially similar.

Now to be sure, Australia is a very wealthy country in terms of GDP per-capita. Furthermore, for the last 3 or 4 decades Australis's economy has been the envy of the developed world, because it has so successfully ridden the commodity boom created by Chinese demand. Australia also strikes me as an incredibly beautiful country, although I've not yet been. Politically speaking, all the statistics suggest that Australia is a much more egalitarian and economically just country than the United States. Australia has a democratic-socialist, pro-union Labor party, for instance, akin to Britain's Labor party or Canada's NDP. Whereas the United States has never had anything even remotely equivalent. America's Democrats are politically equivalent to Britain's, Canada's, and Australia's Liberal parties, and America's Republicans are considerably to the right of Britain's Conservatives and Canada's Progressive Conservatives. Perhaps as a consequence, Australia has a much better "GINI coefficient" than the United States (the GINI is a measure of income inequality), and so too Australia has a much better "Intergenerational Earnings Inelasticity Co-efficient" (a measure of inter-generational economic mobility). Australia is a far more genuinely meritocratic country than the United States, and Australia is a true "land of opportunity", just like the Scandinavian democracies. Simultaneously, Australia is more egalitarian in terms of result or condition, which should not be too surprising, because sociologists and economists have long known that these two types of equality are profoundly linked. They've even charted the link -- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Gatsby_curve. All of this is common knowledge amongst economists and sociologists; if you want references and stats to back up these claims, I can provide literally mountains of articles and graphs.

But luxury markets in a small country like Australia with just 23.13 million people and a GDP of 1.56 trillion USD, simply cannot compare to a country like the United States, whose population is 319 million, and whose GDP is 16.77 trillion USD. Australia's luxury markets also cannot compare to an EU that has half a billion people, and a GDP that's 18.451 trillion USD. Australia is a veritable minnow, as is Canada, the country where I was born. Canada has only 35.16 million people, and a GDP of 1.83 trillion USD, whereas just California alone has 38.8 million people, and a GDP of 2.31 trillion -- see http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/90 .

Why does size matter? The reason is simple: when people strike it rich in the United States by developing a new product or service, they become mega-rich. The big players in various American industries cater to a level of internal, domestic demand that is more than 10 times the size of the Australian market. So a successful furniture company in the United States will be 10 times larger than its Australian equivalent, a successful chain-store retailer will be 10 times larger as well, and so on. The same dynamic is now occurring in the EU, as big players consolidate their positions continent-wide, and squeeze out the smaller companies that had only a national presence.

In the United States and Europe there are then lots of rich people whose wealth far outstrips the wealth typical of the well-off residents of minnow-sized countries like Canada and Australia. Put succinctly, in the United States and Europe there are lots of mega-wealthy people who have more money than sense, and who can afford to splurge on quasi-experimental, ultra-luxe vehicle design.....:sombrero:

In addition, in the United States and Europe there are many more wealthy people who have relatively moderate assets in the 2 - 5 million USD range. At a bare minimum, at least 20 times as many as one might find in Australia. So once a given ultra-luxe experiment proves successful in North America and/or Europe, there are enough additional "modest millionaires" circulating to sustain long-term demand for the novel product. Specialized niche-market luxury-goods manufacturers that would never prove economically viable in small economies like Canada or Australia, can do very well in the huge mega-economies of the United States and the EU. Premium, semi-custom, Class-A motorhome fabricators in the United States and their equivalents in Europe are excellent examples of just such luxury-goods manufacturers. They are the kinds of luxury manufacturers that small countries like Canada and Australia typically do not and cannot create or sustain.

Put more technically, country size has qualitative implications, not just quantitative ones. It's well-known that the size of the domestic market in the EU and the United States allows their mass-manufacturers to realize economies of scale that are simply unavailable to those who try to manufacture for much smaller markets. But in addition, a huge domestic economy also allows a degree of internal diversification that is not possible in a smaller economy. The size of an internal domestic market has dramatic "qualitative" consequences too.


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biotect

Designer

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3. The probable size of the American and European markets for semi-custom, luxury motorhomes in the 1 - 2 million USD range


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In short, there are enough rich people in the United States to sustain a demand for at least 10 fabricators that specialize in building premium Class-A motorhomes that cost 1 - 2 million USD each. And there are enough rich people in the EU to sustain a demand for perhaps 6 or 7 equivalent companies, including horse-box fabricators.

In the United States, in addition to Newell and the "big four" that convert Prevost shells, there are motorhome fabricators that build super-luxe "Toterhomes"; others that build semi-integrated designs on top of a semi-truck chassis; others that cater specifically to the music industry, and/or to the corporate market; and others again that build super-über-luxe motororhomes for Hollywood stars, like Anderson Mobile Estates:






If anything, my guesstimate of 10 such fabricators in the United States is probably too low. The total is probably more like 20. And I'd hazard a guess that at a bare minimum they collectively build 140 - 150 new Class-A motorhomes in the 1 - 2 million USD range per annum.

Consider: in 2011 Millennium sold about a dozen coaches, in 2013 Liberty sold about the same, and Marathon, the volume leader, manufactures about 20 per year -- see http://www.rvbusiness.com/2013/02/liberty-coach-off-to-strong-start-in-2013-sales/ , http://www.rvbusiness.com/2011/02/millennium-luxury-coaches-avoids-downturn/ , http://www.rvbusiness.com/2015/01/marathon-ups-production-on-14-sales-growth/ , and http://www.rvbusiness.com/tag/marathon-coach/. But sales during the previous RV industry spike in 2008 were much higher. In 2008 Featherlite was converting 40 new Prevost shells per year, and Marathon was converting about 100 shells -- see http://www.fmcmagazine.com/back-issues/2008/november-45888/235-private-coach-conversions.html . The article just referenced is especially valuable, because it gives a thorough run-down of other, less commonly known names in the "premium bus shell conversion" market, companies like Creative Mobile Interiors, or Parliament Coach Corporation.

So I figure that between them, Newell + the big four are currently producing about 100 new motorhomes per year in the 1 - 2 million USD range. Add to that another 40 - 50 coaches produced by other manufacturers, especially those catering to the music industry, Hollywood, corporations, and the needs of politicians on the campaign trail. To develop a robust sense of the latter types of coaches, see https://www.prevostcar.com/content/prevost-x3-45-vip-entertainer , https://www.prevostcar.com/content/ultimate-class-touring-entertainers , https://www.prevostcar.com/content/ultimate-class-mobile-workplaces , https://www.prevostcar.com/sites/default/files/entertainer_brochure.pdf , https://www.prevostcar.com/sites/default/files/2011_prevost_brochure.pdf , and https://www.prevostcar.com/content/converters-dealers . In the listing of Prevost shell convertors just referenced, look for "EC" (entertainer convertor), and "CC" (corporate convertor).

For more videos about Entertainer, Corporate, and Speciality Coaches (e.g. Mobile Command Centers), see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OY-p8wXh9J8 , https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsQURlSmhDB_hhAhx-18vug , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPCdpjnmJhI , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAcB_JyGpzM , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGwtjuf6TIQ , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV75HxbhQNo , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQfNGPaAEWA , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZD-NpxiiFw , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLa5jG3Mqrk , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V1ZJendotw , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdAMbWH7rGg , and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQaHr_bXvHc , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcAISUuHYtQ , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_0lCMK7LV4 , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kY6grSB3F8 , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iw51khICO4g , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BF66eQk-bc , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JscFJu3EgrE , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMLrjE337ok , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCM9zi_-cfc , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wa4grZdAERQ , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wmK_Q0z6PY , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehmEqkHzd6c , and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvNaDtIcpfw .

Also consider that before it ran into serious financial difficulties, Country Coach was the high-end "mass market" producer of non-custom Class-A motorhomes, and Country Coach's top models cost around 1 million USD each -- see http://www.rvnews.com/aadvocateblog.cfm . To these American companies then add European premium manufacturers like Volkner, Variomobil, and various horse-box brands. So the worldwide production figure for premium motorhomes costing 1 - 2 million USD lies probably somewhere between 200 - 250 per annum. It won't be lower, and it's most probably higher.

Now granted, as per Australia, above the one million USD price-point many Americans and Europeans would prefer to buy a yacht instead. But it is simply a mistake to think that 1 million USD is any kind of serious "cut-off" point in the American and European markets for premium, semi-custom motorhomes. It is not. The cut-off point is more like 2 million USD, and the Australian market is no reliable guide here.



********************************************


4. The perils of trying to universalize on the basis of small-country experience


********************************************


Having spent some time growing up in Canada, for better or worse I am only too familiar with what one might call "the small-country illusion of equivalence".

Because Canada was an early member of the "G-club" (i.e. Canada was a member when it was still the G-7), and because Canada looks geographically big on a map, Canadians often imagine themselves as having more geopolitical clout than is actually the case -- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_Seven_(G7) . Those born in Ontario especially tend to suffer the delusion of thinking that Toronto is a world-class city in the same league as New York, London, Paris, or Tokyo, when in fact Toronto is just a medium-sized midwestern city on a lake. Truly tiny countries almost never have such delusions of grandeur, and they tend to have much more realistic pictures of how they fit into the grand scheme of things. Here I am thinking of very prosperous but tiny countries like Switzerland, Norway, Finland, etc. But for some reason Canadians who haven't travelled much think it's possible to reason by analogy between the United States and Canada, or Canada and Britain, simply because these First-World countries have similar GDPs per-capita.

So Canadians will often mistakenly reason that if a given market has a certain character in Canada, then it must have the same character in the United States. Unfortunately, this is often quite false.

Yes, I am a passport-carrying Canadian, but I am not a Canadian patriot or nationalist, I also have a German passport, and I consider myself more European than North-American. So for the most part I do not think like a Canadian.



********************************************


With all of that said, your rough-ballpark estimate that there might be a worldwide market for 10 - 20 TerraLiners per annum sounds about right: if the TerraLiner's price-point were roughly 1.5 - 2 million USD:


....[the] Terraliner.... has to developed on a limited budget, [with] the costs spread over 10-20 units per year....


If a smaller, more "condensed", and cheaper version of the TerraLiner could be produced, the global market might be considerably bigger than that.

All best wishes,



Biotect
 
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thjakits

Adventurer
Hi all,

Turbines vs. Piston Engines

CANNOT compare AVIATION turbines with ROAD piston engines - Aviation turbines are built to different design goals than stationary power turbines (Power Stations and Marine applications) or Road turbines (cars, trucks, tanks)

To reach efficiency (consumption) levels of piston engines with turbines is still a distance out...

This should make and show the point:

http://www.airbushelicopters.com/website/en/press/Airbus-Helicopters-starts-flight-tests-with-high-compression-engine-for-cleaner,-more-efficient-and-higher-performance-rotorcraft_1859.html

http://www.wired.com/2010/02/europeans-love-their-diesel-helicopters-are-next/


....shows on one side that turbine efficiency below 500 hp still suffers .....a LOT
....and that LIGHTWEIGHT piston engines start to approach required RELIABILITY at the 450-500 hp level (...and eventually a 2000-3000 hr TBO)
....and that Airbus thinks that the weight difference is more than acceptable for the 30% consumption improvement....

....at the end and STILL - a turbine, in ANY application is only interesting if the weight-savings over a piston are ESSENTIAL to the efficient operation of the situation - at the power levels discussed applied to a BUS/Truck/Motorhome - turbine does NOT make sense at all.




thjakits:coffee:
 
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biotect

Designer
Hi thjakits,

Those two articles that you provided links for are fascinating. Not sure what to make of them. All the more so, not sure how to read them in light of Wrightspeed's counterclaim, regarding its pathbreaking 80 KW dedicated "Fulcrum" automotive turbine generator......?? See https://www.wrightspeed.com/technology/the-fulcrum/. Wrightspeed claims that the Fulcrum is a very fuel-efficient range-extender, because it uses energy recovery by re-feeding its hot exhaust.

Agreed that the weight of the engine itself does not make huge difference at low HP, and that at low HP fuel consumption is more important. But personally, I don't know of a diesel engine that can produce 1500 HP and yet weighs just 150 kg, as per a helicopter turbine. As far as I know, if 1500 HP were the goal in a piston-driven diesel generator, then we can add an extra zero to the weight, because only big marine diesels that weigh 1500 kg or thereabouts can produce 1500 HP.

Remember, the key here is to imagine the TerraLiner carrying two separate generators, with different power ratings and uses, and just one of them dedicated to powering the electric motors when climbing an incline. Climbing a sustained incline like the one running from Sacramento up to Lake Tahoe is not a peak power "moment" of accelerating for a minute or so on a flat surface to get up to 90 kph. Rather, it's a sustained, multi-hour slog that would seriously drain any battery bank, unless that battery bank were stupidly large and hence heavy. So the solution, it seems to me, is to simply accept that one needs to burn serious fuel to do it. And this means a generator at least as big as the continuous power consumption of the electric motors. So at least 420 KW minimum. We're back in Oshkosh territory, where the generator's engine becomes as big in terms of HP or KW as a diesel motor driving the axles more directly and conventionally would have been.

But if a hybrid TerraLiner will need six large 250 HP electric motors to function as retarders in any case when descending slopes, then why not snatch victory from the jaws of retarder necessity, and "go wild"? Have one just one of the generators be a fuel-drunk 1500 HP lightweight helicopter-turbine powerhouse that will feed all the electricity that six 250 HP electric motors could ever want? For long ascending inclines in particular we let fuel economy go to hell, maximizing performance instead. And then for 95 % of the rest of the time the TerraLiner has a terrific, much lower HP turbocharged piston-diesel, one that keeps it running nice and fuel-economical on flats, slight slopes, and slight descents?

I am not an engineer. But I've done tons of mountain driving because I lived for years in both Switzerland and Italy. Even when I don't mountain drive I still "transmission brake" out of habit. As such, I guess I feel that I've become keenly sensitized to how long ascents and descents are a kind of driving that's fundamentally different from all of the other kinds of driving one might do on flat-land, whether highway or city. When I was still quite young I burnt out two transmissions: a car driving up to Tahoe towing a U-Haul trailer, and a U-Haul 24-foot moving truck descending from the Sierras down to Bishop, where we had to trans-load to a different truck. I transmission-braked the whole way, but the 24-foot U-Haul truck just couldn't handle the descent.

These are scenarios where I'd love the TerraLiner to literally eat the pavement of anti-hybrid doubt. That's why Iain's observations about trucks jake-breaking and using engines to dissipate energy on extended descents hit home with such force. Or why I find those humungous 250 HP electric motors in the Wrigthspeed drivetrain endlessly fascinating. I can "feel" the potential as a possible end-user. Wrightspeed's drivetrain "feels" just like what a big truck with electric motors would want. There's no point going with smaller electric motors, because then one would still have to fit electromagnetic-induction retarders in any case. Which is just another name for a generator, but one that produces heat instead of electricity. So why not cut through the complexity, and use super-big electric motors instead, motors that do double-duty as retarder-generators when descending slopes?

It makes total sense, at least to me. But again, I am not an engineer, so I'd love to see this debated and kicked around for a while by others.

Just for the record: thanks for using argument and evidence, and thanks for providing links, and not merely asserting. Those two links to very relevant and interesting articles made all the difference in the world. Without those links, I would have felt zero motivation to take your post seriously.

Remember, here on ExPo we can claim to have tons of "experience", and we can claim to be "experts". But since this web forum is largely anonymous, how do we know that someone who merely asserts their epistemic authority, is not in fact lying through their teeth? Even in a formal university context where the institutional setting creates a hierarchy, and the professor at the front of the lecture hall is supposedly credentialed and hence presumed authoritative, I still found myself refusing to accept his or her authority as a fait-accompli. No doubt because I am a philosopher both by disposition and training, and so I will expect even fully-credentialed authorities in formal academic contexts to provide me with arguments and evidence that I can assess for myself, independently. All the more so then on an anonymous web forum, where I have no idea who I might be talking to. If someone merely asserts on a web forum, I swiftly develop a strong anti-authoritarian allergic reaction, and I just tune out.

Also, thanks for not fielding any of the standard objections to turbines as found in the cruiser's forum thread, eg. heat and noise. Presumably Wrightspeed addressed all the standard objections with its 80 KW Fulcrum. Yours is a different kind of objection, basically, a fuel-consumption worry. Yours strikes me as a legitimate worry, with the possible exception of the scenario I've been sketching vis-a-vis sustained uphill climbing. A scenario, again, where I'd probably want to at least experiment with a super-powerful helicopter turbine or a jet aircraft APU, and see what happens if one were to let fuel consumption go to hell.

Finally, remember that no matter what the outcome of this debate at the level of mere words, if the TerraLiner ever gets past the vaporware phase, the most intelligent thing to do would be design the two generator side-lockers in such a way that they might accommodate a wide variety of possibilities: a wide range of piston-motor diesel generators, yes, but also a cute little 1500 HP helicopter turbine that weighs just 150 kg......:sombrero:

All best wishes,



Biotect

PS -- One more important point, regarding altitude. The articles that you referenced made the excellent observation that turbine efficiency degrades with altitude. Whereas piston-driven diesel engines tend to be turbocharged, and turbocharging does a good job compensating for loss of air pressure due to altitude. An important consideration for the TerraLiner, which will need to glamp the Tibetan plateau.
..
 
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safas

Observer
CANNOT compare AVIATION turbines with ROAD piston engines - Aviation turbines are built to different design goals than stationary power turbines (Power Stations and Marine applications) or Road turbines (cars, trucks, tanks)

I used to be aware of this fact, but I know very few specifics.
It would be great if you could tell us more about such differences.
 

safas

Observer
Agreed that the weight of the engine itself does not make huge difference at low HP, and that at low HP fuel consumption is more important. But personally, I don't know of a diesel engine that can produce 1500 HP and yet weighs just 150 kg, as per a helicopter turbine. As far as I know, if 1500 HP were the goal in a piston-driven diesel generator, then we can add an extra zero to the weight, because only big marine diesels that weigh 1500 kg or thereabouts can produce 1500 HP.
Since such engine would be used very little, you don't need superb durability. A tuner engine would produce such numbers with far lower weight, possibly as low as 500 kg.

But if a hybrid TerraLiner will need six large 250 HP electric motors to function as retarders in any case when descending slopes, then why not snatch victory from the jaws of retarder necessity, and "go wild"? Have one just one of the generators be a fuel-drunk 1500 HP lightweight helicopter-turbine powerhouse that will feed all the electricity that six 250 HP electric motors could ever want? For long ascending inclines in particular we let fuel economy go to hell, maximizing performance instead. And then for 95 % of the rest of the time the TerraLiner has a terrific, much lower HP turbocharged piston-diesel, one that keeps it running nice and fuel-economical on flats, slight slopes, and slight descents?
You don't need the larger engine to power all the wheel motors. Things are better when your two generators working together produce the power that you need. This way you'll save on both weight and fuel consumption. Actually both generators together can even be a bit too small to provide full power to the wheels. After all, you want to arrive at the top with drained batteries.
 
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thjakits

Adventurer
This "battle" is going on since forever.

a] Design a PISTON engine for aviation, that approaches the reliability (at Max Cruise Power) - weight - power of a turbine (benefits: lower fuel consumption and cheaper to build, although Aviation Certification will always put a big dent into the price...you won't get a new Lycoming in the 250-300 hp range for less than $25-30k - on the other hand a basic Chevy LS3, 430 hp is just under $ 8k, granted - this is kind of apples to oranges, as a Diesel engine will be quite a bit more expensive than gasoline one. However there is extremely few diesel pistons in aviation at this time - ALL in small planes and running JP1)

b] Design a TURBINE for road vehicle, that is lighter and simpler than a Piston engine at the same or lower price - the ONLY ever way to get anywhere near a Piston engine is with a super efficient heat exchanger (energy recovery), as ALL other car-turbine efforts BEFORE Wrightspeed already figured out.

So far (and Wrightspeed seems to be just "another one" and not the exception), the combination of 1) "just not getting the efficiency of a diesel" - 2) turbine production costs (...it is still easier and cheaper to get the tight tolerances of a piston engine right, than the ones in a turbine - basically: milling and lathe work for an piston engine - mostly all circles and straight lines - is cheaper and easier than turbine blade work) - 3) never been brought to production levels that could have gained broad public acceptance (I don't say, it couldn't have happened - have a look at the Wankel/Rotary - same story, not enough initial development, customer acceptance problems and fuel crisis did it in - only Mazda LOVED the thing and went on. It was WAY easier to get the Rotary right, than a turbine...) - the combination of all of this will not allow Wrightspeed either to gain sufficient traction.....[You have ONE turbine pack producer against HOW many diesel engine makers?? ...and the generator part is the same for all]
As soon as you have a turbine parked (stationary), floating or rolling - most of the magic disappears and Diesel-Piston-Engines take over (rare exceptions confirm the rule - when WEIGHT-concerns are of the absolute essence)

Previously mentioned concerns regarding bumps and accelerations on turbines on the road are of not much consideration.

a] You get a lot of bumps in aviation just the same - especially in helicopters you will see a LOT off-coordination (sideways forces - sideways flying)

b] By now you probably see, that a aviation turbine is not much gain on the road - so if you go turbine you will have to find a road-designed one and it will be designed to road-loads...
(exceptions confirm the rule - as those mad men with a Allison 250 in the turbine-bike...)

For any commercial desire in the near and medium future - your best bet is to stick with Turbo-Diesel offerings (unless you want to wait for a ZERO-Point power pack from Star Gate.....)

Different topic: WHY would you want to go hydro-drives on the trailer, when you could just as well use a e-motor/generator??
Hydro-drive will not let you charge the batteries easily when braking.....(you can store energy short term - see MAN efficiency pack connected with their hydro-drive)..

Just doesn't make any sense to go that way if you just as well could integrate e-drive.....
Hydro-drive on the trailer makes sense if you already have Hydro-drive on the tractor vehicle. As a stand alone for the trailer you look at a electric hydraulic pump set-up to drive the hydro-drives. So you need to get all the electric connections anyway, might as well use them for e-drive.....
IF you want to use the tractor to provide the hydraulic supply you will look at a some serious hydraulic connections to the trailer - don't see this as convenient in a "older couple"-Mobilehome setup....
[Whatever literature you may have spelling the gospel about the beauty of dry-break quick connections - hydraulics will ALWAYS seep oil - not a big problem in a commercial dump truck environment - mobilhome?? Electric connections don't visibly/oily seep.....]

I'll go for the hydro-drive in my imaginary converted bus, IF I use hydro-drives on the bus anyway, but then I am bilge-crab (engine man on big ships).
However, even though I REALLY like the hydro-drive, considering a Serial hybrid (you are still ON with that one, no?), even for my ICB (Imaginary Converted Bus), I'd rather look at ALL-Electric-drive - Bus AND Trailer.

Think of it - you ALREADY will use some kind of electric motor/generator to drive your tractor unit axles - why not use the same for the trailer??
(Seriously - I re-read your posts - I do not see your rational to suddenly use hydro-drives on the trailer)


thjakits:coffee:
 
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biotect

Designer
You don't need the larger engine to power all the wheel motors. Things are better when your two generators working together produce the power that you need. This way you'll save on both weight and fuel consumption. Actually both generators together can even be a bit too small to provide full power to the wheels. After all, you want to arrive at the top with drained batteries.

Hi safas,

A 1500 HP helicopter turbine would power a generator that produces about 10 - 15 % less power than that, say 1300 HP. So even a 1500 HP helicopter turbine would not prove totally sufficient on its own to power six Wrightspeed 250 HP motors. Either the battery pack, or the second generator, or both, would have to contribute as well, if a full 1500 HP of electricity were desired to power six such electric motors when climbing an extended incline.

There's also the question of what it means, exactly, to design for "fail-safe" operation. Does this mean that even if one generator fails, the TerraLiner should still have 100 % capability in all situations, with just the one remaining generator? Or does "fail-safe" mean that the TerraLiner should still have some capability left, just not 100 %? How much should the two generators "overlap" to provide 100 % capability? Here one might speculate that perhaps an ideal configuration would give the TerraLiner 100 % operational capability with just one generator in all situations, with the sole exception of climbing extended inclines. In the case of a scenario in which only the less powerful generator remains working, climbing extended inclines should still be possible, but at a much lower speed, say just 50 or 40 kph. And with a few "battery recharge" stops required, lasting two or three hours.

I've deliberately left such questions open, because it's still not clear how large the electric motors will need to be, in order to provide the right amount of "retarding power" for an extended downhill descent. With any luck Iain might crunch the numbers for a possible descent down the Karakoram highway, from the border with China down to Islamabad. Perhaps six 250 HP motors acting as electromagnetic-induction retarders would be enough; or perhaps even too much. Or not enough at all. Who knows? The size of the electric motors would then dictate, to some extent, the ideal HP combination of the two generators.

As for the battery pack, if the electric motors were large, and if "high performance" were wanted on an ascent (ascending at 80 or 90 kph, for instance, instead of just 50 kph), then the contribution of the battery pack might be comparatively negligible. But agreed, one would want to arrive at the top with the batteries drained, so that they could absorb energy for a possible descent immediately following on the other side of the pass.

There are lots of different variables in play here. Again, I think it would be a bit foolish to try to foreclose possibilities in advance in any kind of dogmatic, narrow-minded, or ideologically zealous way. After all, one of the reasons hybrid is so attractive is precisely because it provides the possibility of what Wrightspeed describes as an "Open Generator Architecture". That's a major plus that one should want to design so as to maximize. I am still very curious about turbine-driven APUs for jet-aicraft, for instance. Have you found any yet?

All best wishes,


Biotect
 
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